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Super Micro Computer Shares Fall Again on Latest Update. Is the Bottom In, or Is There More Downside Ahead for the Stock?

Core Insights - Supermicro's stock has experienced significant volatility, with shares dropping after disappointing fiscal Q1 results and ongoing audit issues [1][2] Financial Performance - Supermicro expects fiscal Q1 sales to be between $5.9 billion and $6.0 billion, down from previous guidance of $6 billion to $7 billion, but still nearly tripling from $2.1 billion year-over-year [3] - Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be between $0.75 and $0.76, a decrease from prior guidance of $0.67 to $0.83, but an increase from $0.34 a year ago [4] - Gross margins are expected to improve to 13.3%, up from 11.2% last quarter, but still below historical levels of 15% to 17% [5] - For the second fiscal quarter, revenue is forecasted to be between $5.5 billion and $6.1 billion, with adjusted EPS between $0.56 and $0.65, compared to $3.66 billion in sales and $0.56 EPS a year ago [6] Audit and Compliance Issues - A Special Committee found no evidence of fraud by management, but the company is implementing remedial measures for internal governance [7] - Supermicro is at risk of delisting from Nasdaq due to its inability to file its 10-K annual report, with a deadline of 60 days from a non-compliance notice received on September 17 [8] - The company previously faced delisting in 2019 for similar issues, which could impact its current standing in the S&P 500 [9] Market Position and Competition - Supermicro benefits from the AI infrastructure boom, but faces significant competition in a low-margin business [10][11] - Nvidia has reportedly diverted orders away from Supermicro due to concerns surrounding the company's accounting practices, which could have long-term implications for its business [12] Investment Considerations - Given the current uncertainties and risks, it may be prudent for investors to remain cautious regarding Supermicro's stock, despite its potential in the AI infrastructure sector [13]