中金2025年展望 | 全球市场：信用周期重启之路

US Credit Cycle - The US credit cycle is gradually restarting, with interest-sensitive sectors like housing and corporate investment leading the recovery [2][3] - Financial conditions have eased ahead of actual rate cuts, with credit expansion already underway in some areas [3] - The Fed's unconventional rate cuts have increased the likelihood of a soft landing, with the real rate gap narrowing to 0.7ppt [2][13] - Private sector credit expansion is expected to drive economic recovery in 2025, though the process may be uneven [12][13] - The Fed is close to completing its rate-cutting task, with only about 100bp of cuts remaining [2][13] China Credit Cycle - China's credit cycle restart depends on sufficient fiscal stimulus to offset private sector deleveraging [1][3] - Private sector returns remain below financing costs, while government leverage is insufficient to counterbalance [3][13] - Fiscal stimulus of 7-8 trillion yuan or a 40-60bp rate cut is needed, but faces constraints like leverage levels and exchange rates [4][36] - The private sector continues to deleverage, with housing loans declining by 1.1 trillion yuan year-over-year [30][33] - Government leverage has increased but not enough to reverse the overall credit contraction trend [33][36] Asset Implications - A synchronized restart of US and China credit cycles would be the most optimistic scenario for risk assets [5][53] - The baseline scenario is a mild US credit cycle restart and a halt in China's credit contraction, favoring US assets and structural opportunities in China [5][53] - In a pessimistic scenario of stalled US credit and continued China contraction, gold, high-dividend, and rate-sensitive assets would be preferred [5][53] - US stocks, especially tech and cyclical sectors, are likely to perform well, with S&P 500 potentially rising 8-10% to 6200-6400 [5][6] - US bonds may face challenges, but trading opportunities exist with 10-year yields expected to stabilize at 3.8-4% [6][13] US Economic Recovery - The US economy is transitioning from soft landing to weak recovery, with interest-sensitive sectors like housing and investment leading the way [19][20] - Consumer spending is expected to stabilize in 2025, supported by real wage growth, while housing demand is underpinned by demographic factors [20][21] - AI investment and cyclical sectors are key drivers of growth, though AI's contribution may slow due to higher base effects [21][22] - Manufacturing and energy sectors are expected to see increased capital expenditures, particularly under potential Trump policies [22][25] Fiscal and Policy Constraints - US fiscal policy in 2025 is expected to remain moderate, with limited direct economic impact but potential to boost sentiment [13][17] - China's fiscal constraints include high local government debt servicing costs, estimated at 4 trillion yuan annually [36][37] - External shocks, such as potential US tariff hikes, may increase the need for domestic stimulus in China [44][45] - The US election could reinforce the "Reagan loop" of fiscal expansion, tech innovation, and capital inflows, though this is not a stable equilibrium [47][49]