中金2025年展望 | 全球汇率：从美元微笑曲线的中间到两端

Global Forex Market Overview - The global forex market in 2024 has been primarily driven by expectations around the Federal Reserve's policy, with the US dollar's strength in the first half linked to delayed rate cut expectations and rising US interest rates [2] - The US dollar experienced a sharp decline in Q3 due to the restart of rate cut trades and the unwinding of carry trades, but rebounded in Q4 as strong US economic data pushed rate cut expectations back [2] - The macro environment in Q3 was characterized by "falling rates + rising risk assets," placing the US dollar in the middle of the "smile curve," which is the most unfavorable combination for the dollar [2] - In 2025, the forex market's direction will depend on changes in interest rates and risk appetite, with the Federal Reserve's policy expectations remaining a key driver of the US dollar's movements [3] US Dollar Outlook - The US dollar is expected to follow a "first decline, then rise" trajectory in 2025, with an initial drop driven by renewed rate cut trades, followed by a rebound as US interest rates bottom out later in the year [3] - The Trump administration's policies may raise the US dollar's central level but are unlikely to alter its path of first declining and then rising in 2025 [3] - The US dollar's movement in 2025 will be influenced by the Federal Reserve's policy cycle, with non-US economic factors and risk appetite causing periodic disturbances [5] - In 2024, the US dollar index fluctuated significantly, driven by changes in market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's rate cuts, with the dollar index dropping over 5% from its yearly high in Q3 [6] Euro and Other Currencies - The euro outperformed expectations in 2024, ranking second among G10 currencies after the British pound, despite a generally weak European economy and earlier rate cuts by the European Central Bank [4] - The euro's resilience is attributed to its valuation already reflecting negative factors, with "not worse than expected" fundamentals and "not more dovish than expected" monetary policy providing support [4] - In 2025, the euro's movement will be more influenced by the Federal Reserve's policy expectations and interest rate fluctuations, with potential additional pressure from Trump's tariff policies [4] - The Chinese yuan's correlation with safe-haven currencies increased in 2024, likely due to the strengthening of its financing function, and its exchange rate in 2025 will be influenced by the US-China interest rate differential and Trump's tariff policies [5] Emerging Market Currencies - Southeast Asian currencies such as the Malaysian ringgit, Thai baht, and Singapore dollar performed relatively well in 2024, supported by external demand and fewer rate cut expectations [7] - Latin American currencies, which performed well in 2023, underperformed in 2024 due to the start of rate cut cycles and increased political uncertainty leading to the unwinding of carry trades [7] - The British pound was the best-performing developed market currency in 2024, while the Japanese yen underperformed due to sticky UK inflation and weaker-than-expected Japanese economic performance [7] Forex Trading Strategies - Carry trade strategies were the best-performing forex trading strategies in 2024, despite significant drawdowns in July and August due to the unwinding of carry trades [8] - Value and trend strategies underperformed in 2024 due to the lack of clear trends and the poor performance of low-yielding currencies like the Japanese yen [8] Trump Administration's Impact on Forex - Trump's policies, including tax cuts, increased defense spending, and tariffs, could lead to higher US fiscal deficits and inflation, potentially raising the US dollar's central level in the short term [23] - Trump's tariff policies may pressure currencies of countries with high trade dependence on the US, such as Mexico, Canada, and Vietnam, with potential volatility in these currencies if tariffs are imposed [24] - In the long term, Trump's policies may accelerate de-dollarization, as higher fiscal deficits and inflation could erode confidence in US Treasury securities and reduce the dollar's global dominance [26]