中金2025年展望 | A股：已过重山

Macro Perspective - The domestic economy faces challenges from internal financial cycle downturns and external deglobalization, leading to insufficient demand and low inflation [2] - Policy support since September has been crucial in reversing the low inflation environment and boosting growth expectations [2] - Real estate remains a key factor in stabilizing expectations, with housing sales area reaching 588 million square meters in the first nine months of 2024 [7] - Export uncertainties may increase due to potential trade policy changes under the new US administration, but structurally resilient sectors are expected to remain competitive [7] Mid-term Market Dynamics - The A-share market in 2024 was primarily driven by valuation recovery, with a focus on whether this can transition to earnings-driven growth in 2025 [3] - Corporate profit growth in 2025 is expected to be better than 2024, with full-year A-share/non-financial profit growth estimated at +1.2%/+3.5% [3] - The market is currently at its most active level since 2015, with significant increases in investor account openings and margin balances [3] - Domestic household savings and global capital allocation needs may support further market performance [3] Market Rhythm and Amplitude - Market changes in 2025 are expected to be more frequent but with narrower amplitude compared to 2024 [4] - The transition from valuation-driven to earnings-driven growth may face volatility, with market performance depending on the confirmation of earnings inflection points [4] Sector Allocation and Investment Themes - Four main investment themes are highlighted: growth industries with potential inflection points, resilient export sectors, new dividend strategies, and policy-supported areas [5] - Key sectors include lithium batteries, high-end manufacturing, semiconductors, consumer electronics, and software [5] - Export-resilient sectors such as power grids, commercial vehicles, and home appliances are also recommended [5] - Policy-supported areas include mergers and acquisitions, net asset value repair, and local government debt resolution [5] Corporate Profitability - A-share market profitability is expected to improve in 2025, with non-financial revenue and net profit growth projected at 3.2% and 5.5%, respectively [24] - The banking sector is expected to see a narrowing of net interest margin declines, with overall profitability remaining flat compared to 2024 [24] - Brokerage and insurance sectors may see a slight decline in profit growth due to high base effects [24] Supply-side Adjustments - Supply-side adjustments remain a key focus, with capital expenditure reductions in many industries expected to alleviate profit margin pressures [26] - Industries such as industrial metals, oil services, consumer electronics, and automotive parts are expected to benefit from supply-side reforms [26] - Government debt resolution efforts may improve cash flow expectations for sectors with high receivables, such as environmental protection and construction materials [27] Export Chain Pressures - Export-oriented industries may face increased pressure due to potential trade policy changes under the new US administration [27] - Sectors with strong export resilience, such as power grids and commercial vehicles, are expected to withstand these pressures better [27] Liquidity and Valuation - Macro liquidity is expected to remain loose in 2025, with potential further reductions in social financing costs [35] - Market liquidity has improved since September 2024, with daily trading volumes approaching 2 trillion yuan and turnover rates rising to historically high levels [35] Overseas Market Impact - The US economy is expected to achieve a soft landing, with the Federal Reserve continuing its rate cuts, which may reduce external constraints on China's monetary policy [10] - The new US administration's policies on trade, technology, and industry will be key external variables affecting China in 2025 [10]