中信证券｜站上起跑线 ：A股市场2025年投资策略

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is expected to enter a new annual-level upward trend starting in 2025, driven by stabilizing housing prices in core cities and a rebound in social financing growth, marking a new phase in the credit cycle, macro prices, and A-share earnings [1][3][4]. Group 1: Credit Cycle - The implementation of debt reduction policies will help local governments and enterprises to ease their financial burdens, potentially triggering a new credit cycle upward in 2025 [2][4]. - The latest debt reduction plan indicates an increase of 6 trillion yuan in local government debt limits and an additional 4 trillion yuan in new special bond quotas over five years, aiming to resolve hidden debts totaling 12 trillion yuan [4]. Group 2: Macro Prices - The real estate market is expected to stabilize gradually, with policies aimed at boosting confidence in housing sales, leading to a mild recovery in domestic prices in the second half of 2025 [5]. - The combination of demand-side policies and a revitalized credit cycle is anticipated to break the negative cycle of macro debt and prices, with PPI expected to improve and GDP deflator index projected to turn positive by late 2025 [5]. Group 3: A-share Earnings - A-share earnings are projected to enter a new upward cycle in the second half of 2025, driven by the recovery in credit and prices [6]. - The expected earnings growth for A-shares in 2025 is forecasted to slightly increase to 0.7% from 0.5% in 2024, with a gradual recovery in ROE anticipated [6]. Group 4: Investment Ecosystem - The "1+N" policy framework is becoming clearer, improving the expected returns and investment environment in the A-share market [7]. - The A-share market is expected to maintain a stable net inflow of funds, with personal and institutional investors actively participating [8]. Group 5: Key Investment Themes - The three key investment themes for the upcoming market cycle are: 1. High-quality growth focusing on self-sufficiency and technology-driven emerging industries [10][11]. 2. Domestic consumption, transitioning from essential to discretionary spending [12]. 3. Mergers and acquisitions, emphasizing industry consolidation and the development of new productive forces [13].