大类资产｜革故鼎新，否极泰来：2025年策略

Global Macroeconomic Trends - Three main factors will determine the global asset trends in 2025: 1) Weakening US labor market, sticky US inflation with controllable secondary inflation risks, and a continued but moderate global central bank rate-cutting cycle, leading to a favorable liquidity environment for most assets [1] - The potential resurgence of deglobalization under a Trump administration could test global trade conditions, enhancing the value of gold [1] - Domestic assets in China are expected to respond sensitively to policy support and a mild economic recovery, potentially leading to a dual bull market in stocks and bonds [1] Domestic Economic Recovery - After a prolonged downturn, the economic cycle is showing signs of a turning point, with a mild recovery expected in 2025 [2] - Policy measures are expected to be more forceful than in the past, boosting private sector confidence and stabilizing the real estate market, which could drive a rebound in domestic demand [2] - The recovery may face challenges such as delays in translating property sales into investment, weak income expectations, and uncertain external demand [2] Policy Shifts - 2025 is expected to be a year of significant policy reforms, with reduced implementation resistance and a more proactive policy stance [3] - Monetary policy innovations include a more effective interest rate system, new liquidity tools, and measures targeting the stock market [3] - Fiscal policy will focus on debt resolution and diversification, with a continued emphasis on proactive measures [3] US Economic Outlook - US economic growth is expected to continue in 2025, supported by fiscal expansion, but risks remain from weakening household employment and financial conditions [4] - Inflation is likely to remain stable, with energy prices fluctuating weakly and housing costs providing a stable core, reducing the risk of secondary inflation [4] - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain a rate-cutting cycle amid a stable economy and manageable inflation risks [4] Asset Class Performance - A-shares: Risk appetite is expected to recover systematically, with the market potentially staging a phased recovery as economic fundamentals improve and policies are released [5] - Chinese bonds: The bond market may remain favorable, but the investment paradigm could shift due to equity market performance and policy impacts [5] - Overseas assets: The US dollar may weaken after initial strength, US bonds could see a steeper yield curve, and US stocks may continue to rise [6] - Commodities: Base metals like copper may see price increases, while oil prices may not rebound significantly, and cryptocurrencies could benefit from global liquidity and de-dollarization trends [6] Gold Market - Gold is expected to remain strong due to ongoing global central bank rate cuts, US fiscal expansion, and geopolitical uncertainties [7] - Inflation in the US is likely to remain sticky, supporting gold prices, while global central banks continue to increase their gold reserves [7]