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Roger's Shares Fall 24% YTD: How Should Investors Play the Stock?
RCIRogers Communications(RCI) ZACKS·2024-11-12 14:21

Performance and Market Position - Roger Communications (RCI) shares have dropped 23.4% year to date (YTD), underperforming the Zacks Consumer Discretionary sector's growth of 10.1% and the Zacks Cable Television industry's increase of 0.4% [1] - RCI's underperformance is attributed to stiff competition from TELUS and BCE in the wireless operations and communication cable markets [2] - RCI's cable revenues reduced 1% year over year to 1.97billioninQ32024duetoadeclineintheHomePhoneandSatellitesubscriberbase[2]TechnologicalAdvancementsandPortfolioExpansionRCItestedDOCSIS4.0withComcastXERmodemtoincreasedownloadspeedtofourgigabitsanduploadspeedtoonegigabit,integratingAI,cloudfunctions,anddataprocessingcapabilities[3]RCIenhancedtheDOCSIS3.1platformtodevelopnetworkresilienceandprovidestableconnectivitywithquickerdownloadanduploadspeeds[4]RCIpartneredwithSpaceXtoprovideemergencyalertsviasatellitetomobilephonesindisasteraffectedareasinCanada[4]RCIinkedastrategicagreementtobuyoutBells37.51.97 billion in Q3 2024 due to a decline in the Home Phone and Satellite subscriber base [2] Technological Advancements and Portfolio Expansion - RCI tested DOCSIS 4.0 with Comcast XER modem to increase download speed to four gigabits and upload speed to one gigabit, integrating AI, cloud functions, and data processing capabilities [3] - RCI enhanced the DOCSIS 3.1 platform to develop network resilience and provide stable connectivity with quicker download and upload speeds [4] - RCI partnered with SpaceX to provide emergency alerts via satellite to mobile phones in disaster-affected areas in Canada [4] - RCI inked a strategic agreement to buyout Bell's 37.5% ownership in Maple Leaf Sports & Entertainment (MLSE), becoming the largest owner with a 75% stake, expected to conclude by mid-2025 [5] - RCI partnered with Disney to bring Disney+ to Ignite TV users free of cost and with Warner Bros. Discovery to launch and distribute Discovery channels [6] Financial Guidance and Earnings Estimates - RCI expects total service revenues to grow between 8% and 10% in 2024, with adjusted EBITDA growth in the range of 12-15% [7] - Capital expenditure is expected between C3.8 billion and C4billion,withfreecashflowexpectedintherangeofC4 billion, with free cash flow expected in the range of C2.9-C3.1billion[7]TheZacksConsensusEstimateforRCIsfiscal2024revenuesispeggedat3.1 billion [7] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for RCI's fiscal 2024 revenues is pegged at 14.78 billion, indicating year-over-year growth of 3.33% [8] - The consensus mark for earnings is pegged at 3.55pershare,implyingyearoveryeargrowthof5.343.55 per share, implying year-over-year growth of 5.34% [8] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Q4 fiscal 2024 earnings is pegged at 1.05 per share, indicating year-over-year growth of 20.69% [8] - The consensus mark for Q4 fiscal 2024 revenues is pegged at $3.87 billion, indicating a year-over-year decline of 1.22% [9] - RCI's earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the trailing four quarters, delivering an average surprise of 3.87% [9] Valuation and Market Outlook - RCI shares are currently undervalued, with a Value Score of A and a forward 12-month Price/Earnings (P/E) ratio of 9.23X, lower than the Zacks Consumer Discretionary sector's 19.34X [10] - RCI has a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), suggesting investors may want to wait for a more favorable entry point [10]