中金：走向“半通胀”——中国宏观2025年展望

Economic Outlook and Inflation - Core inflation may rise from -0.4% in 2024 to 0.5-1% in 2025, while CPI inflation could increase from 0.3% to 1-1.5%, approaching a "semi-inflation" scenario [1] - The main economic challenge is a significant demand gap, with downward pressure on prices due to complex mechanisms in the financial cycle, including the "Minsky effect" and "Fisher effect" [2] - GDP deflator may remain negative for seven consecutive quarters by the end of 2024, with CPI contributing more to the drag compared to previous cycles [3] Demand Gap and Policy Response - The cumulative demand gap since 2020 is estimated at 3-4%, with policies like equipment renewal and consumer trade-ins showing limited price impact [4] - Reducing debt burdens is crucial for narrowing the demand gap, with recent monetary policies easing interest burdens but requiring fiscal support to address insufficient demand [2] - Fiscal policies targeting民生 (livelihood) are more effective in boosting demand, especially in uncertain export environments, with potential shifts from infrastructure to民生 spending [3][17] Financial Cycle and Debt Dynamics - The financial cycle's downturn has led to a complex low-price loop, with housing market adjustments and debt repayments exacerbating the "Minsky effect" and "Fisher effect" [4][5] - Local government fiscal pressures have increased due to declining land sales revenue, with total fiscal expenditure as a percentage of GDP dropping from 34% in 2019 to 28% in 2024 [6] - Corporate financing has weakened, with net financing cash flow for non-financial listed companies hitting a decade low in Q2 2024 [7] Fiscal and Monetary Policy Measures - Recent policy measures, including interest rate cuts and debt swaps, aim to alleviate debt pressures, with potential savings of 650 billion yuan in interest for the real economy [14] - The approval of 6 trillion yuan in local government debt limits for隐性债务 (hidden debt) swaps could save 600 billion yuan in interest over five years and release fiscal space of 1.36 trillion yuan annually [15][16] - Further monetary easing is expected, including potential reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate reductions, alongside innovative monetary tools to support fiscal efforts [17] Sectoral Impacts and Future Projections - The construction and public utilities sectors have seen a rapid rise in accounts receivable, indicating cash flow pressures, particularly for smaller, non-listed companies [9][10] - Local government fiscal challenges are compounded by declining land sales and隐性债务 repayments, with广义财政 (broad fiscal) net financing income contracting by 3 percentage points of GDP in 2024 [11][12] - A gradual recovery in demand could see real GDP growth increase by 0.5-1 percentage points in 2025, with potential external risks from US trade policies [20][21] Inflation and Growth Scenarios - A "semi-inflation" scenario is projected for 2025, with GDP deflator inflation rising to 0.5-1%, CPI to 1-1.5%, and PPI recovering to around 0% [22] - Fiscal expansion targeting民生 and consumption is expected to drive社会零售 (retail sales) growth, with potential GDP growth of 5.5% in 2025, supported by debt swaps and increased fiscal支出 (expenditure) [22][23]