医疗健康｜创新趋势已突显，抓住行业确定性的阿尔法：2025年投资策略

Industry Overview - The pharmaceutical industry is gradually recovering from the most severe anti-corruption storm in a decade, with hospital demand returning to normal [1][2] - The impact of centralized procurement on the healthcare sector's valuation has diminished, marking the true post-centralized procurement era [1][2] - Innovation-driven and specialized manufacturing remain the main growth drivers, with new hot sectors emerging such as pharmaceutical exports, state-owned enterprise reform, low valuation dividends, and increased market share of leading companies [1][3] Investment Trends - Innovation-driven investment trends are becoming more evident, supported by the "Whole Chain Support for Innovative Drug Development Implementation Plan" [2] - The healthcare industry is entering a new cycle of significant reform, with accelerated industry consolidation expected from 2025 [3] - The pharmaceutical sector is expected to see a turning point with multiple favorable factors, including policy optimization, improved capabilities, internationalization, and favorable funding conditions [4] Sector Analysis CXO - Overseas financing environment is gradually warming up, with leading CXO companies expected to see improved overseas business orders [5] - High R&D enthusiasm in new molecular fields like peptides and ADCs is expected to drive industry prosperity [5] - Domestic policy support for genuine innovation is expected to enhance the competitiveness of domestic CRO companies [5] Scientific Services and Biopharmaceutical Supply Chain - The industry is expected to reach an inflection point in 2024, with revenue growth and profitability recovering in 2025 [6] - Downstream customer product expansion is expected to drive rapid growth in areas like culture media, fillers, and pharmaceutical glass [6] APIs and Intermediates - The API industry is at a cyclical bottom, with potential for upward reversal as global downstream inventory levels decrease [7] - The peak of innovative drug patent expirations from 2023 to 2028 is expected to significantly expand the specialty API market [7] - API + formulation integration is expected to help companies break through revenue ceilings [7] Blood Products - Industry plasma collection has returned to normal, driving steady growth in 2024-2025 [8] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" period is expected to accelerate domestic plasma station construction, ensuring strong growth for domestic blood product companies [8] Medical Devices - Short-term benefits from debt resolution and equipment updates, with long-term focus on companies with continuous innovation and internationalization capabilities [9] - Key areas to watch include CGM, ICL, electrophysiology, neurointervention, orthopedic joints, and gene sequencers [9] Vaccines - Heavyweight products are entering the harvest period, with domestic vaccines setting sail for international markets [10] - Key products to watch include domestic nine-valent HPV, shingles, and RSV vaccines [10] Traditional Chinese Medicine (TCM) and Health - Long-term growth driven by aging population and consumption upgrade, with short-term growth supported by state-owned enterprise reform, consumption rebound, equity incentives, and high dividends [11] - Key investment directions include well-known brands, innovative R&D, and traditional TCM brands with pricing power [11] Medical Services - Expected marginal recovery in 2025, driven by chronic disease prevalence and aging population [12] - DRG/DIP reform and medical service price adjustments are expected to create long-term investment opportunities [12] Consumer Healthcare - Expected rapid recovery in the ophthalmology and medical aesthetics sectors [13] - Ophthalmology sector is expected to see continued domestic substitution and marginal improvement in services [13] - Medical aesthetics market is expected to grow rapidly, driven by technological upgrades and increased penetration [13] Pharmaceutical Commerce - Debt resolution, anti-corruption, centralized procurement, and interest rate cuts are expected to benefit distribution businesses [14] - Industry concentration is expected to increase, with second growth curves emerging from SPD and CSO models [14] - Retail sector is expected to recover gradually, driven by prescription drug outflow and stable same-store sales growth [14] Investment Strategy - Focus on innovation breakthroughs, pharmaceutical manufacturing exports, post-centralized procurement winners, recovery sectors, and macro policy changes [16] - Key areas include innovative products, biopharmaceutical exports, leading companies with increased market share, and upstream raw materials [16] - Industry consolidation and M&A opportunities are expected to be a major theme in 2025 [16]