ETF｜指数定价崛起，把握切换、重视价格：2025年投资策略

ETF Market Overview - The ETF market has experienced historic growth over the past year, with the number of ETFs exceeding 1,000 and the scale surpassing 3.5 trillion yuan [2] - In 2023, 1.53 trillion yuan flowed into stock ETFs, highlighting their role as a stabilizing force during market adjustments and a booster during rebounds [2] - Large strategic investors hold over 1 trillion yuan in ETFs, with increasing participation from insurance and annuity funds [2] - The A500 index has gained market recognition, with 45 fund companies competing, and its product scale rapidly exceeding 100 billion yuan [2] - Passive index funds now account for 46% of domestic equity products, approaching the 57% level in the US market [2] ETF Influence and Pricing Power - Index funds' market value surpassed active equity funds for the first time in Q3 2024, with ETF trading accounting for nearly 10% of A-share trading [3] - ETF inflows significantly impacted the strong performance of the CSI 300 at the beginning of 2024 and the STAR 50 at the end of September 2024 [3] - The outperformance of the banking sector over the past year is highly correlated with substantial inflows into CSI 300 ETFs [3] - Index adjustments have had a stronger impact on related stocks since 2023, with ETF redemptions and subscriptions affecting individual stock returns [3] ETF Style and Sector Allocation - Value style has outperformed growth style for three years, but marginal changes in macroeconomic and liquidity indicators suggest a potential shift [4] - Economic recovery and corporate earnings improvements could drive a long-term growth cycle [4] - The manufacturing PMI rose above the boom-bust line in October, signaling economic improvement [4] - In the technology sector, the global semiconductor cycle continues to rise, with healthy supply-demand dynamics in electronics, communications, and computer industries [5] - The consumer sector shows marginal improvement in optional consumption like cars and tourism, with pork prices supporting essential consumption [5] - The manufacturing sector faces price pressures in mining and metallurgical equipment, but signs of recovery are emerging in the lithium battery automotive industry [5]