组合配置｜被动工具为基，主动配置破局：2025年投资策略

Market Outlook - The allocation value of Chinese equity assets is expected to increase by 2025, while the value of multi-assets like gold remains due to geopolitical and policy factors [1] - Global stocks performed well in the first 10 months of 2024, with bonds experiencing significant volatility, and commodities and alternatives showing divergence [2] - Domestic A-shares and Hong Kong stocks rebounded strongly after a downward trend, positioning at the starting line of a long-term marathon rally [2] - The likelihood of intensified geopolitical conflicts such as the Middle East, Korea, and trade protectionism remains, with global central banks continuing to increase gold holdings [2] Index Investment and ETF Market - Active management products are gradually aligning with market indices, and index products are favored for their efficiency, low cost, and transparency [3] - The domestic ETF market has flourished over the past five years, with index fund assets reaching 4.78 trillion yuan by Q3 2024, surpassing active funds [3] - The US ETF market reached over 8.1 trillion dollars by the end of 2023, with ETF trading volume accounting for 30% [3] - Institutional investors like pension funds, sovereign funds, and insurance companies are key participants in the indexation trend [3] ETF-Based Investment Strategies - Strategy 1: "Dividend + Technology" ETF allocation focuses on defensive dividend assets and high-growth potential tech sectors, achieving a 19.19% annualized return from January 2019 to October 2024 [3] - Strategy 2: Industry theme ETF rotation uses trend tracking and indicators like liquidity and volatility, achieving a 5.16% cumulative excess return over the CSI 800 from December 2023 to October 2024 [4] - Strategy 3: Multi-asset all-weather strategy combines stock ETFs, bond ETFs, and alternative ETFs, with gold and commodity versions achieving annualized returns of 6.67% and 6.20% respectively from 2014 to October 2024 [4] - Strategy 4: "Fixed Income + Dividend" strategy aims for drawdown control and return enhancement, with absolute return and tactical allocation strategies achieving annualized returns of 6.27% and 8.14% respectively from 2014 to October 2024 [5]