中金2025年展望 | 全球研究：新变化与再平衡下的全球投资

Global Economic and Market Outlook - The global economic market in 2025 will be shaped by two key dynamics: economic rebalancing and the "new changes" brought by the Trump administration [2] - The US market is favored due to potential inflation and growth boosts from Trump's policies, while non-US economies may face challenges [2] - Emerging markets with strong domestic demand are more promising, particularly those less exposed to US trade [6][7] Regional Investment Implications - US policies are expected to benefit the US economy while suppressing non-US regions, particularly through tariff policies and corporate tax cuts [4] - Europe may outperform Japan in 2025, driven by lower valuations and greater ECB rate cut potential [5] - Emerging markets are cautiously optimistic, with a focus on countries like Indonesia, which has low US exposure and strong domestic demand [7] Sectoral Investment Opportunities - Financial sector is expected to benefit from a steepening yield curve and lighter regulation under Trump [10] - AI, defense, and electrification are seen as structural opportunities with low sensitivity to political and cyclical changes [11] - Consumer sector is viewed cautiously due to potential negative impacts from Trump's policies on real wages and wealth [11] Japan's Economic and Market Outlook - Japan's economy is expected to recover in 2025, with GDP growth potentially exceeding 1% [12] - Inflation is likely to remain between 2-3%, driven by wage increases and cost pass-through [12] - Japanese stocks may continue to rise, supported by global economic growth and corporate earnings [12] Europe's Economic Recovery - Europe's economy is expected to recover slowly in 2025, with monetary policy easing and fiscal consolidation [17] - Structural challenges and trade uncertainties may limit growth, but lower interest rates could stimulate investment and consumption [17] Emerging Markets: Vietnam and Indonesia - Vietnam's GDP growth is projected to reach 7.0-7.5% in 2025, driven by FDI inflows and monetary easing [18] - Indonesia's economy is expected to remain resilient, supported by domestic demand and the development of its EV industry [20][21] Global Mining and Commodities - Copper and gold are favored, with copper prices expected to rise due to tight supply and improving demand [30] - Lithium and nickel prices are expected to remain volatile, with lithium potentially bottoming out in 2025 [30] Industrial and Technology Sectors - The industrial sector may see marginal improvement in 2025, driven by energy transition and data center investments [46] - AI and communication sectors are expected to remain strong, with continued demand for AI infrastructure and data center equipment [36][37] Automotive and Luxury Goods - Global automotive sales are expected to grow modestly in 2025, with challenges in EV adoption in the US and Europe [51] - Luxury goods sector is projected to grow by 4% in 2025, driven by product premiumization and price increases [56] Consumer and Retail Sectors - US consumer spending is expected to remain resilient, with a focus on value-for-money brands [54] - The footwear and apparel industry may see a recovery in 2025, with product innovation and channel expansion driving growth [55]