科技｜跨越智能元年，关注复苏下新质生产力机遇：2025年投资策略

Core Viewpoint - The investment theme for the technology industry in 2025 will continue to revolve around AI, with significant opportunities in AI computing power, applications, and terminals, driven by macroeconomic recovery and industry policy implementation [1][2][3]. Group 1: Review and Outlook - In 2024, global technology stocks, particularly in the US, benefited from advancements in large models driving the AI wave, with the Nasdaq and Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rising by 26% and 25% respectively [2]. - The Chinese technology sector showed significant valuation elasticity, with indices such as the communication, electronics, and automotive sectors rising by 30%, 21%, and 21% respectively by November 7, 2024 [2]. - Despite challenges like insufficient computing power and external disturbances, the rapid progress of domestic computing power and large model capabilities is expected to open up larger market spaces for AI applications and terminal hardware [2][3]. Group 2: Investment Themes - The main investment line for 2025 will focus on AI and its application, with continuous improvements in large model capabilities and decreasing costs creating new opportunities across various industries [3]. - The introduction of numerous policies since September 2024 is expected to improve market expectations and support the recovery of macro demand, which will benefit the technology sector [3][6]. Group 3: AI Industry Insights - The computing power sector is experiencing high demand, with North American cloud providers expected to see capital expenditure growth exceeding 50% in 2024, indicating a robust computing power industry [4]. - Domestic companies are accelerating the exploration of AI application scenarios, with a focus on efficient data governance to enhance model performance [4]. - The terminal AI sector is witnessing advancements in personal AI assistants, autonomous driving, and humanoid robots, with significant potential for market growth [5]. Group 4: Recovery Expectations - Since September 2024, macro policies have significantly improved market expectations, with the recovery in demand expected to provide substantial growth opportunities for the Chinese technology sector [6]. - The internet sector's revenue growth is closely correlated with retail sales growth, while the automotive sector benefits from trade-in policies that stimulate vehicle sales [6]. - The focus on technological innovation in national policies is expected to create a favorable environment for sectors like semiconductors and telecommunications [6]. Group 5: Investment Strategy - The AI industry chain is anticipated to maintain high growth, with recommendations to focus on domestic computing power chips, supporting equipment, and AI application software [8]. - In the context of macroeconomic recovery and improving demand, sectors such as the internet, consumer electronics, automotive, semiconductors, and telecommunications are expected to see significant valuation recovery and investment value [8].