公募REITs（资产配置篇）｜淘漉辛苦，始见真金：2025年投资策略

Market Overview - The public REITs market has seen a valuation recovery this year, driven by policy support and a decline in domestic interest rates [2] - As of November 6, 2024, the secondary market capital gains and dividend yields of public REITs, measured by the CSI REITs (Closing) Index and CSI REITs Total Return Index, were 2.01% and 6.06%, respectively [2] - Investors favor REITs with stable income streams, while some high-volatility REITs have also experienced significant valuation recovery [2] Investment Strategy - REITs investment should focus on both the numerator (income and cost) and denominator (risk-free rate and risk premium) [1] - For primary market investment, opportunities lie in the price gap between primary and secondary markets, especially in eco-environmental protection, energy, and affordable housing sectors [1] - In the secondary market, credit spreads are expected to decline further, and risk-free rates may also decrease, providing a catalyst for REITs, particularly in Q2 and Q3 of 2025 [1][7] - The numerator side of REITs may see year-on-year recovery due to incremental policy support, with a preference for "to C" sectors like affordable housing, consumer infrastructure, and eco-environmental protection [1][7] Sector Analysis Highways - Highway REITs' income volatility is mainly driven by traffic volume, with passenger traffic less affected by economic cycles compared to freight traffic [3] - Factors like extreme weather, road network changes, and weak freight demand have pressured highway REITs, though passenger traffic during holidays has supported some recovery in Q3 [3] Eco-Environmental Protection - Eco-environmental REITs show stable income and pricing over a full year, with policy changes being a potential uncertainty [3] Energy - Energy REITs face diverse income drivers, with natural resource fluctuations and market-based electricity trading structures being key factors [3] - Despite increased differentiation in performance among energy REITs due to electricity price changes and natural resource fluctuations, some have shown strong performance in the first three quarters of 2024 [3] Industrial Parks - Industrial park REITs are influenced by regional supply and economic cycles, with a focus on the "asset bottom" rather than just occupancy rates [4] - Some industrial parks have shown structural highlights despite overall industry pressure [4] Warehousing and Logistics - Non-bonded warehouses face supply-demand pressures, while bonded warehouses have limited demand [4] - Warehousing and logistics REITs' performance is driven by regional supply-demand dynamics, with a focus on the "industry bottom" [4] Affordable Housing - Affordable housing REITs benefit from limited supply and rental income stability, with most assets performing steadily in the first three quarters of 2024 [4] Consumer Infrastructure - Consumer infrastructure REITs, especially shopping centers, rely heavily on management teams' active management capabilities [4] - Active brand adjustments have supported stable operations and high occupancy rates in the first three quarters of 2024 [4] Denominator Analysis - The discount rate in REITs includes both risk-free rates and risk premiums [5] - Eco-environmental, energy, and affordable housing REITs are more sensitive to declines in risk-free rates, with affordable housing REITs showing higher sensitivity to bond yield declines [5] - Broad interest rate declines have limited impact on cyclical assets due to increased risk premiums [5] Strategic Outlook - Public REITs are expected to play a significant role in asset allocation due to declining interest rates and an asset-scarce environment [6] - The market is expected to expand with regular issuance, enhancing REITs' value as an asset class for both "fixed income+" and high-dividend strategies [6] - Opportunities exist in the primary market for eco-environmental, energy, and affordable housing REITs due to valuation gaps [6] - Sector selection and focusing on top-performing assets are crucial, with a preference for anti-cyclical and "to C" sectors [6] - Management teams' proactive adjustments have mitigated the impact of industry downturns, highlighting the importance of selecting strong operators [6] Market Timing - Credit spreads are expected to decline further, with risk-free rates potentially entering a downward trend in Q2 and Q3 of 2025 [7] - The numerator side of REITs may recover year-on-year due to policy support, with a focus on "to C" sectors and top-performing assets [7]