【招银研究|行业深度】“双碳”研究之化工降碳篇——迈向零碳的挑战与途径

Core Viewpoints - The petrochemical and chemical industry accounts for 12% of China's total carbon emissions, with 10 key sub-sectors contributing nearly 70% of the industry's emissions [1] - The industry faces significant pressure to reduce carbon emissions by 110 million tons by 2025, with refining, methanol, and synthetic ammonia being the largest emitters [1][6] - Green hydrogen and CCUS are critical for achieving carbon neutrality, but face challenges in cost, stability, and transportation [2][58][59] Carbon Emission Sources - Refining: Total emissions of 318 million tons, with catalytic cracking and hydrogen production being major sources [1][11] - Coal chemical: Emissions of 496 million tons, with coal gasification as the key source [1][19] - Chlor-alkali: Emissions of 142 million tons, mainly from electricity consumption [1][24] - Soda ash: Emissions of 19.1 million tons, primarily from steam consumption [1][28] Policy Requirements - By 2025, the industry must reduce carbon emissions by 110 million tons, equivalent to an 8% reduction [6] - Multiple policies have been issued to guide energy-saving and carbon reduction upgrades, including strict project approvals and capacity controls [7] Carbon Reduction Pathways Public Utilities - Energy-saving equipment and efficient energy utilization are the most practical means, with investment in equipment updates expected to reach 500 billion yuan by 2027 [2][34] - Self-built photovoltaic and green electricity procurement are key to decarbonizing electricity, with green electricity trading volume reaching 61.1 billion kWh in 2023 [2][41] Industrial Processes - Green hydrogen is essential for reducing process emissions, but faces challenges in cost, stability, and transportation [2][48][52] - New catalysts can reduce coke deposition in catalytic cracking, lowering emissions by over 50,000 tons annually for a 2 million ton/year unit [58] - CCUS is the final means to fill the carbon neutrality gap, with 190 million tons of CO2 needing to be reduced annually by 2050 [59] Technological Innovations - Lightweight raw materials like ethane and propane are increasingly used for olefin production, reducing energy consumption [37] - Crude oil direct cracking and syngas-to-olefins are emerging technologies that can significantly reduce carbon emissions [39] - Nuclear energy is being explored for steam supply in chemical parks, with the first project in China reducing carbon emissions by 1.07 million tons annually [46] Industry Challenges - The refining industry faces dual pressures of capacity expansion and product upgrading, making it the most challenging sector for carbon reduction [17] - Coal chemical industry's reliance on coal as a raw material results in emissions twice that of natural gas routes [19] - Chlor-alkali industry has the lowest energy efficiency, with only 3% of calcium carbide capacity and 15% of caustic soda capacity meeting benchmark levels [26]