野村首席观点 | 野村中国首席经济学家陆挺：上调中国第四季度及2024全年GDP增长预测

Macroeconomic Outlook - China's Q4 GDP growth forecast revised up from 4 4% to 4 9% due to ultra-long special treasury bonds, home appliance trade-in program, improved new home sales, export rebound, and increased stock market trading [1] - Full-year 2023 GDP growth forecast raised from 4 7% to 4 8% considering policy adjustments and delayed effects of earlier stimulus measures [1] - 2025 GDP growth forecast maintained at 4 0%, with potential for stronger fiscal stimulus measures during the National People's Congress in March 2025 [1] Retail Sector - September retail sales grew 3 2% YoY, exceeding market expectations of 2 5%, driven by the trade-in program for consumer goods [2] - Q4 retail growth expected to rebound from Q3 due to sustained effects of trade-in program and favorable base effects in November and December [2] - Central government shifting focus from investment to consumption, with trade-in program playing a key role in boosting consumption [2] Real Estate Market - New home sales showed positive growth for the first time since June 2023, with pent-up demand continuing into November [3] - Q4 new home sales expected to rebound significantly from Q3, though industry outlook remains cautious [3] - Central government committed to stabilizing property market but progress on specific fiscal plans has been slow [3] Export Sector - September export delays caused by Typhoon Bailu led to export volume shifting to October, requiring reassessment of Q3 and Q4 export growth [4] - Fourth quarter export growth forecast revised up from 6 0% to 8 5% due to stronger-than-expected October data and potential front-loading of US-bound shipments ahead of potential 60% tariffs under Trump administration [4]