US-China Tech Competition - The US tech industry policy is expected to remain robust despite potential marginal adjustments under Trump's return, with a focus on investment, regulation, talent, cryptocurrency, and antitrust [1] - The US is likely to maintain its current tech sanctions framework against China, strengthening strategic competition in areas such as investment, exports, imports, exchanges, and alliances, which will further reinforce China's self-reliance and domestic substitution logic [1] Monetary Policy and Bond Market - The M1 statistical口径 is expected to be adjusted to include personal demand deposits and non-bank payment institution reserves, leading to higher year-on-year growth and reduced volatility in M1 [3] - The M2-M1剪刀差 remains historically high, indicating a need for increased资金活化程度, with宽松的货币政策 continuing to support economic recovery [3] Index Adjustments - The CSI A500 index is predicted to undergo a sample stock adjustment by the end of 2024, with potential inclusions such as工业富联, 山西汾酒, and 温氏股份 [5] - The overall冲击系数 of the index adjustment is expected to be low [5] Communication Sector - The China Securities Regulatory Commission has issued guidelines on市值管理, which are expected to benefit优质央企集团 and their listed companies in the communication sector through回购, 增持, and股权激励 [6] Energy and Chemical Sector - The energy and chemical sector is expected to benefit from逆周期调节 and supportive stock market policies, with investment opportunities in央企改革, cost-advantaged产能扩张品种, and优质成长公司 [8] Photovoltaic Industry - The reduction in光伏出口退税率 is expected to have a limited short-term impact on厂商盈利, with leading companies likely to推动产品向下游顺价, stabilizing international market prices and accelerating落后产能出清 [9] Fiberglass Industry - The下调出口退税率 for fiberglass and related products is expected to increase出口价格, with国际龙头 benefiting from海外生产基地布局 and potentially gaining more market share [10] Fiscal Policy - China's广义财政收支 improved significantly in October 2024, with税收收入 turning positive due to economic recovery and非税收入 maintaining high growth [11] - The fourth quarter is expected to see accelerated广义财政支出, supported by专项债 and特别国债, which will help地方政府腾挪更多稳增长、惠民生的空间 [12] Automotive Industry - The Guangzhou Auto Show in November 2024 highlighted the continued rise of自主品牌, with high客流 for造车新势力 and traditional自主 brands like比亚迪 and吉利 [14] - The trend of自主崛起 is expected to continue into 2025, with more高端 and超高端自主车型 anticipated [14] Consumer Sector - October 2024社零同比增长4.8%, exceeding expectations, with汽车, 粮油食品, and日用品 showing strong growth [15] - The消费 sector is expected to stabilize in Q4 2024, with potential for recovery in Q2 2025, particularly in必需板块 like乳制品 and大众餐饮 [15] Defense and Aerospace - The军工电子 sector is expected to recover, with订单修复 and业绩抬升 anticipated, particularly in自主可控 and弹药链 directions [17] - The domestic commercial航空发动机 market is projected to exceed 2 trillion yuan over the next 20 years, with significant订单 and market value expected [19] Real Estate - The real estate market showed signs of回暖 in October 2024, supported by政策, but further宽松政策 is needed to巩固复苏势头 [21]
晨报｜“特朗普回归”之中美科技博弈
中信证券研究·2024-11-19 00:13