中金2025年展望 | 房地产开发商：迈向止跌回稳

Core Views - The Chinese real estate market is in the early to mid-stages of deleveraging, with the fastest period of price and volume decline likely over, and policies are becoming more proactive to stabilize the sector [1] - The valuation bottom for real estate stocks may have been established, with future upside dependent on incremental policies and potential price stabilization by 2025 [1] - The policy focus has shifted from "stability" to "active support," with fiscal policy playing a crucial role in stimulating demand and housing acquisition [2] - Three policy scenarios (strong, medium, weak) are considered for 2025, with varying impacts on sales volume, price trends, and investment [3] Policy and Market Dynamics - The policy stance has evolved through four phases since 2016, from "active regulation" to "active support," with the latest phase aiming to halt the market decline [4] - Demand-side measures include significant reductions in mortgage rates and down payment ratios, while supply-side measures focus on credit risk management and ensuring project delivery [5] - Despite policy efforts, sales volume rebounds have been short-lived, indicating bottlenecks in policy implementation and intensity [6] - The effectiveness of purchase restrictions and mortgage rate adjustments has diminished, reflecting underlying pressures on household income expectations [7] Housing Acquisition and Urban Renewal - Housing acquisition policies, including funds for affordable rental housing and local government bonds, have been slow to progress, with key challenges in pricing and execution [8] - Urban renewal projects, particularly those involving monetary compensation, could boost sales by 6-7% if fully implemented, but progress depends on funding and project viability [9] - Financing support for projects and developers has improved, but further measures are needed to address risks and enhance liquidity [9] Market Outlook for 2025 - Under strong policy scenarios, sales volume could stabilize, but price declines may persist due to supply and pricing pressures [3] - The share of secondary housing sales is expected to rise to 50-52% in 2025, driven by pricing advantages and delivery certainty [3] - Real estate investment is projected to decline by 9-15% in 2025, depending on policy intensity, with land acquisition costs showing greater elasticity [3] - The gap between new and secondary housing prices is expected to narrow, particularly in first-tier cities [29] Developer Strategies and Financial Health - Developers are in the early stages of deleveraging, with a focus on reducing debt and inventory levels [46] - Sales performance in 2024 has been weak, with new projects driving limited sales growth, while older projects face significant challenges [47] - Profit margins are expected to remain under pressure in 2025, with potential recovery starting in 2026 as project structures improve [48] - State-owned enterprises (SOEs) are in better financial health compared to private developers, with ongoing debt restructuring likely for the latter [51] Real Estate Stock Valuation and Investment Opportunities - The long-term bottom for Chinese real estate stocks may have been established, with potential for valuation recovery driven by policy and market stabilization [53] - The "policy speculation" trading paradigm is fading, with future returns likely driven by fundamental improvements rather than short-term policy bets [53] - Valuation recovery could range from 30-40% under strong policy scenarios, with potential for further upside if market conditions improve [57] - SOEs and leading private developers are better positioned for recovery, while distressed developers may require more time for restructuring [51][57]