张瑜：解开三螺旋——2025年度策略报告

Core Viewpoints - The current macroeconomic challenges are characterized by a "triple spiral" of economic downturn, wealth shrinkage, and weak expectations, which are intertwined and mutually reinforcing [4][7][8] - Policy responses aim to address these issues through measures targeting housing prices, stock market stability, PPI, and fiscal expansion, with a focus on systemic solutions [9][10][11][12] - The effectiveness of these policies will determine the trajectory of the economy and asset allocation in 2025 [4] Macroeconomic Challenges - The "triple spiral" involves three key areas: wealth (housing prices), expectations (PPI and stock prices), and economic activity (consumption and investment) [7] - Housing prices, especially in first-tier cities, have declined significantly, with residential net assets shrinking for 10 consecutive quarters and real estate developers' net assets declining for three consecutive years [7][40] - Weak PPI and stock market performance reflect low business and investor confidence, with M1 growth also declining [8][53] - Consumption and investment growth remain sluggish, with first-tier cities experiencing more pronounced weakness in retail sales and real estate investment [8][65] Policy Responses Housing Market - The policy focus is on stabilizing housing prices while controlling the volume of transactions, with measures including land acquisition, ensuring project delivery, and urban village renovation [9][81][82] - The government aims to avoid a repeat of the 2015-2018 housing market boom, which led to excessive leverage and hidden debt risks [9][77] Stock Market - Efforts to stabilize the stock market include reforms to mutual funds, encouraging passive index funds, and facilitating the entry of insurance and pension funds into the market [10] - The government is cautious about financial risks, particularly the potential for "financial hollowing-out" as seen in 2015 [10] PPI and Supply-Side Reforms - Supply-side reforms are expected to play a key role in addressing PPI weakness, with a focus on market-driven capacity reduction rather than administrative measures [11][84][85] - Historical precedents from 1998-2000 and 2016-2018 suggest that capacity reduction of 1.4%-2.0% in industrial sectors may be necessary [14][15] Fiscal Policy - Fiscal expansion is seen as inevitable, but with stricter discipline to avoid the accumulation of hidden debt, as seen in the 2015-2018 period [12][90][91] - The government is expected to prioritize consumption over investment in its fiscal stimulus efforts [12][91] Asset Allocation Scenarios Scenario 1: Economic Recovery - In this scenario, equity markets may experience three phases: policy-driven recovery, profit-driven recovery, and a final phase driven by cyclical and durable goods sectors [21][22][23] - Bond markets may see interest rates decline initially but could face upward pressure as PPI recovers [24] Scenario 2: Persistent Economic Weakness - If the "triple spiral" remains unresolved, low interest rates and high-dividend stocks may become the primary investment focus [25][26] - Bond yields could continue to decline, reflecting ongoing economic challenges [26] Commodities and Gold - Commodities may benefit from supply-side reforms, particularly in industries with low profitability, such as steel, cement, and chemicals [27] - Gold remains a key asset for medium-term allocation, driven by geopolitical risks and non-traditional pricing factors [29] Trade and External Risks - Trade friction, particularly with the US, poses a significant risk, with potential tariff increases potentially reducing Chinese exports by 2.6%-5.8% [28][31] - The US election and potential policy changes under a Trump administration could further complicate the trade environment [28][34] Domestic Reforms and Opportunities - Domestic reforms, particularly in the financial sector, may create new opportunities, including the promotion of long-term capital inflows and the development of strategic industries [32] - The potential for household savings to shift into the stock market is significant, with the ratio of household savings to A-share market capitalization at a historically high level [33]