高盛重磅展望2025全球股市：估值过高，Beta别想了，追求Alpha机会

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs predicts that the S&P 500 index will rise by 11% to 6500 points by the end of 2025, with potential for further gains in Japanese, European, and emerging markets [1][8]. Market Overview - Since October 2022, global stock markets have risen by 40%, with the S&P 500 experiencing one of its strongest rallies since 1928 [2][3]. - The MSCI global index has increased nearly 40%, while the Nasdaq has surged over 50%, and Nvidia has skyrocketed by 264% [2]. Valuation and Growth - Current market valuations are at historical highs, particularly in the U.S., with a forward P/E ratio significantly above the 20-year average [3]. - Despite the Federal Reserve entering a rate-cutting cycle, long-term interest rates remain sticky, leading to a disconnect between bond yields and stock valuations [3][5]. Economic Forecasts - Goldman Sachs forecasts a 2.5% real GDP growth rate for the U.S. in 2025, above the Wall Street consensus of 1.9%, while projecting a more cautious 0.8% growth for Europe [4]. Market Concentration - The U.S. stock market accounts for approximately 70% of the MSCI global index, with the top 10 U.S. stocks representing over 20% of the total global index value [6]. - High market concentration poses risks, as the performance of large-cap stocks can significantly impact overall market performance [6]. Investment Strategy - Investors are encouraged to focus on "Alpha" stocks that can outperform the market average, rather than relying on overall market performance [2][10]. - Goldman Sachs suggests that future market returns will primarily be driven by earnings growth rather than valuation expansion [10]. Regional Insights - The report is optimistic about the Japanese stock market, predicting a total return of 17% for the TOPIX index and 12% for the MSCI Asia-Pacific index (excluding Japan) [9]. - The European Stoxx 600 index is expected to rise to 530 points, with a total return of 8% [10]. Investment Themes - Key investment themes include market expansion opportunities, selective value, geographic diversification, and increased capital market activity [11][12]. - The focus is on identifying undervalued stocks in regions like Japan, the UK, and certain emerging markets, as well as seeking value within growth stocks [12][13].