This Little-Known Space Company Forecasts Parabolic Hypergrowth

Core Viewpoint - BlackSky Technology missed analyst forecasts for both sales and earnings, yet its stock price increased by approximately 9% following the earnings report, closing above $8 [1][2]. Financial Performance - BlackSky's Q3 sales were $22.5 million, missing the forecast of $27.5 million by over 18%, and the company reported a loss of $0.66 per share compared to the expected loss of $0.65 [2][4]. - Year-to-date sales increased by 22%, but Q3 sales were only 6% higher than Q3 2023 levels, indicating a weak quarter in an otherwise strong year [4]. Contract Wins - BlackSky signed multiple multi-year contracts worth up to $780 million in future revenue, which includes a $290 million contract with the National Geospatial Intelligence Agency (NGA) and a $476 million contract with NASA [4][5]. - The two highlighted contracts account for $766 million of the total $780 million, which would represent a significant growth opportunity for the company [6]. Competitive Landscape - Both contracts were awarded to multiple winners, meaning BlackSky is one of several companies competing for the work, which may limit its actual revenue from these contracts [7][8]. - The NGA contract will be divided among 10 winners, while the NASA contract includes seven other competitors, indicating that BlackSky's share of the contracts could be significantly less than the total amounts mentioned [9][11]. Future Outlook - While there is potential for BlackSky to secure a share of the awarded contracts, expectations of receiving the full amounts are likely unrealistic, and profitability is not anticipated before 2027 [10][11].