中信证券：新梯落、服务升 电梯行业转型元年已至

Core Insights - The elevator industry is at a critical juncture, transitioning from new elevator sales to the service market, with projections for 2025 indicating that the market value shares will be 43% for new elevators, 47% for maintenance, and 10% for upgrades, marking a shift where the service market surpasses new elevator sales [1] Group 1 - The transformation is driven by the slowdown in new real estate construction and the aging elevator stock in the country, which has reached a significant level of over ten million units [2] - The introduction of policies in 2024, such as "old-for-new" and "housing pension," has clarified funding sources, maintenance and upgrade methods, and implementation timelines, providing a boost to the elevator service market [2] - Based on international experience, the domestic maintenance market share is expected to concentrate towards high-quality, high-price leading elevator manufacturers, resulting in higher self-maintenance rates, service business proportions, and overall profit margins for these manufacturers [2] Group 2 - Companies that have actively positioned themselves in the elevator service market should be closely monitored, along with component manufacturers in the upstream supply chain that possess strong competitive advantages and high profitability resilience [2]