中金：关税政策的可能路径与影响

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential impacts of Trump's cabinet nominations on U.S. trade policies, particularly focusing on tariffs and their implications for the Chinese market and global trade dynamics [1][5][12]. Cabinet Nominations and Their Implications - Key cabinet positions have been nominated, including Scott Bessent for Treasury Secretary and Howard Lutnick for Commerce Secretary, which are crucial for future fiscal, tax, and tariff policies [1][4]. - The article highlights that immigration and tariffs can be implemented quickly without Congressional approval, while tax cuts require legislative action before 2026 [1][4]. Tariff Policy Evolution - The article outlines three potential methods for implementing tariffs, each with different timelines and scopes, indicating that the current administration may act more swiftly than during Trump's first term [5][6][7]. - The first method involves invoking the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), allowing immediate tariff implementation without legislative approval [6][7]. - The second method utilizes Section 301 of the Trade Act, which can lead to tariffs on specific countries and products, typically requiring around a year for implementation [7][8]. - The third method involves broader trade restrictions that require Congressional approval, which is more time-consuming [8][9]. Comparison with Previous Trade Policies - The article notes that the current trade environment differs from 2018, with China being more reliant on external demand, as evidenced by a 23.8% contribution of net exports to GDP from January to September 2023, compared to 4.7% in 2017 [12][14]. - The article also mentions that the ability to use currency devaluation as a countermeasure against tariffs may be limited due to internal and external pressures [15][12]. Response Strategies - The article suggests that the primary response to tariff policies should focus on expanding domestic demand and adjusting trade balances through currency devaluation and export strategies [21][19]. - It emphasizes that fiscal measures may need to be increased to offset the economic impact of tariffs, with a potential rise in the deficit rate of 0.5% to 0.7% if tariffs increase to 30-40% [21][22]. Asset Implications - The article predicts that if tariffs are set at 30-40%, the impact may resemble the market conditions of 2019, where the economy could adapt more effectively due to existing internal demand stimulation tools [36][22]. - However, if tariffs reach extreme levels (60%), significant market disruptions could occur, necessitating time for policy adjustments to take effect [36][22].