Group 1: Core Views - The core view is that the home appliance industry is expected to maintain robust growth driven by high-quality globalization and high dividend rates, with potential market changes due to cyclical improvements in domestic demand by 2025 [1][2][3]. Group 2: Globalization and Market Dynamics - Globalization is identified as a key driver for the growth of the Chinese home appliance industry, with companies capable of enhancing their brand share in overseas markets despite trade barriers [1][2]. - The demand in the US and European markets has fluctuated due to the pandemic, with a peak in demand followed by a destocking cycle. Emerging markets are expected to see rapid increases in penetration rates for major appliances starting in 2023 [1][2]. - By 2025, the penetration rate for major appliances in emerging markets is anticipated to continue rising, supported by improvements in the US real estate cycle and the conclusion of the destocking cycle in Europe [1][2]. Group 3: Domestic Sales and Policy Impact - The demand for major appliances as essential goods is expected to remain stable through 2023-2024, benefiting from the "old-for-new" policy starting in August 2024. The continuity of subsidy policies in 2025 is a critical focus [2][3]. - Fiscal stimulus policies are anticipated to enhance consumer demand in 2025, with potential improvements in the performance of optional appliances and post-real estate cycle products as the Chinese economy recovers [2][3]. - The home appliance sector has seen significant returns from early 2023 to September 24, primarily due to the high growth certainty of leading companies and the confidence brought by the "old-for-new" subsidy policy [3]. Group 4: Valuation and Market Performance - The home appliance sector's valuation is expected to improve, particularly if market liquidity increases, although elasticity may remain weak. The solid fundamentals of the sector are highlighted as a key advantage [2][3]. - Historical valuation levels of leading white goods companies in China are noted to be low compared to international peers like Daikin Industries, suggesting significant room for valuation improvement [2][3]. Group 5: Export Growth and Brand Development - China's home appliance exports have shown a consistent growth trend, with exports increasing from 87.8 billion in 2023, reflecting a CAGR of 12% [27][30]. - The demand for Chinese refrigerators, washing machines, and air conditioners is driven by rising penetration rates in emerging markets, with significant year-on-year growth reported in 2023 [30][31]. - Chinese brands are gradually increasing their market share in the global home appliance sector, although they still lag behind established brands in terms of overall market presence [32][33].
中金2025年展望 | 家电与智慧家居：展望高质量全球化与内销刺激效果
中金点睛·2024-11-20 23:36