主题研究｜日元汇率的历史和现实：日元汇率分析框架

Historical Context of Yen Exchange Rate - International monetary cooperation significantly influenced the yen exchange rate from the 1970s to the 1990s, with events like the "Plaza Accord" and "Christmas Accord" playing crucial roles [1][3] - Post-2000, domestic and international monetary policies, along with global financial cycles, became key factors affecting the yen's trend [1][4] - The yen tended to appreciate before 2012 due to Japan's zero interest rate policy, deflation, and current account surplus [1] - Post-2013, the yen depreciated due to ultra-loose monetary policies, and the 2022 depreciation helped the Bank of Japan achieve its inflation target [1] Current Yen Exchange Rate Dynamics - The significant yen volatility in 2024 is driven by differences in US-Japan monetary policy expectations, particularly changes in US economic data and Fed rate cut expectations [1] - Unlike 2008, the scale of carry trades has significantly decreased, and the reduction in interest rate differentials and increased volatility do not suggest a sharp reversal in carry trades [1] - Japanese institutional investors' strategies differ, making large-scale capital inflows unlikely to drive yen appreciation [1] Comparison with 2016 - The Fed's policy cycle differs: 2016 was a rate hike cycle, while 2024 is a rate cut cycle [2] - Yen buying positions were higher in 2016 compared to 2024, and Trump's election is no longer an unexpected event [2] - The Bank of Japan is more cautious about yen depreciation than appreciation, with current policies focusing on monetary normalization [2] Historical Events and Yen Exchange Rate - The Bretton Woods system fixed the yen at 360 yen/USD in 1949, undervaluing the yen and boosting Japan's international competitiveness [6] - The Nixon Shock in 1971 led to the yen's appreciation to 308 yen/USD, and the Smithsonian Agreement expanded the floating range to ±2.25% [6] - The first oil crisis in 1973 caused the yen to depreciate, but Japan's trade surplus later drove it back to 177 yen/USD by 1978 [10] Trade and Policy Impact on Yen - Japan's trade surplus in the 1970s and 1980s supported yen appreciation, while US-Japan interest rate differentials influenced short-term fluctuations [10][14] - The Plaza Accord in 1985 and the Louvre Accord in 1987 were key international agreements affecting the yen's value during the bubble economy period [15] - The yen's appreciation in the early 1990s was driven by US-Japan interest rate differentials, Japan's low inflation, and trade surplus growth [18] Post-Bubble Economy and Yen Trends - The yen depreciated in the late 1990s due to Japan's financial crisis and US economic growth, reaching 145 yen/USD by 1998 [21] - From 1999 to 2011, the yen appreciated due to Japan's zero interest rate policy, US rate cuts, and its safe-haven status during crises [25] - Post-2012, Abenomics and ultra-loose monetary policies led to sustained yen depreciation, with the yen reaching 161 yen/USD in 2024 [28] Long-Term Yen Analysis - The yen's long-term trend shows appreciation from the 1970s to 1995, followed by fluctuations between 75 and 150 yen/USD until 2012, and a clear depreciation trend post-2012 [28] - Purchasing power parity (PPP) based on CGPI has historically been a central factor in yen exchange rate fluctuations [29] - Japan's trade balance shifted from surplus to deficit in the 2010s, with primary income growth offsetting trade deficits, but monetary policy and financial markets have become more influential on the yen's value [34][35]