玻纤｜为什么我们当前看好玻纤行业？

Industry Overview - The fiberglass industry entered an upward cycle in late March 2024, driven by price adjustments by major companies, but profitability and valuations remain at low levels [1] - The industry is expected to maintain a dynamic supply-demand balance in 2025, with high certainty and elasticity in demand for high-end products like wind turbine yarn and thermoplastic chopped strands [1] - In 2026, new capacity additions are likely to decrease significantly, potentially leading to supply tightness and price increases [1] Current Industry Cycle - Historical fiberglass upcycles have lasted about 1.5 years, with the current cycle starting in March 2024 [2] - Price adjustments by major companies have been well-received downstream, leading to gradual recovery in industry sentiment [2] - Effective new capacity for coarse yarn in 2023 and 2024 is estimated at 258,000 tons and 462,000 tons respectively, with net new capacity at 306,000 tons and 390,000 tons [2] - Despite weak domestic real estate demand, fiberglass demand remains resilient due to its material substitution properties, with coarse yarn apparent consumption growing over 10% in the first three quarters of 2024 [2] - Wind power demand accelerated significantly in the second half of 2024, with full-year coarse yarn demand growth expected to exceed 6% [2] Future Outlook - In 2025, domestic coarse yarn demand is expected to grow around 6%, with companies likely to control supply through cold repairs of old production lines, maintaining supply-demand balance [3] - By 2026, coarse yarn demand is expected to continue growing, but new capacity additions may decrease significantly, potentially leading to supply tightness and price increases [3] Profitability Analysis - While coarse yarn prices have increased overall, there are structural differences in price adjustments [4] - Major fiberglass companies have shown significant quarterly net profit improvements since Q2 2024 [4] - Head companies' per-ton profitability remains at cycle lows in Q3 2024, with most companies still unprofitable [4] - With improving downstream demand, companies may have motivation to raise prices further to improve profitability [4] Valuation Analysis - After two years of downward cycle, PB valuations of major listed fiberglass companies have reached historical lows [5] - With expected profit improvements in the current upcycle, valuations have significant room for growth [5] - Some companies have initiated share buybacks, and a major shareholder of China Jushi announced plans to increase holdings by 500-1000 million yuan, demonstrating confidence in industry and company development [6] Investment Strategy - Fiberglass downstream demand is expected to continue improving over the next two years [8] - In 2025, supply-demand balance is expected to be maintained, with high certainty and elasticity in demand for high-end products [8] - In 2026, new capacity additions may decrease significantly, potentially leading to supply tightness and price increases [8] - With industry sentiment continuing to improve, both profitability and valuations of major fiberglass companies have room for growth [8] - The fiberglass industry is currently at a major opportunity allocation point [8]