【招商食品|深度】涪陵榨菜：新视角下的投资机会

Industry Overview - The pickled vegetable industry is experiencing a slowdown in overall consumption growth, but there are still growth drivers such as increased industry standardization, the rise of low-salt products, and the expansion of consumption scenarios, demographics, and channels [3] - The packaging trend continues, with packaged pickled vegetables accounting for 58% of the market, while unpackaged pickled vegetables make up 42% [6] - Low-salt products are gaining popularity, with 76.4% of consumers willing to pay a premium for low-salt pickled vegetables [7] - The industry is expanding its consumer base and consumption scenarios, with young consumers and online channels becoming increasingly important [8][9] Company Strengths - The company holds a dominant market share in the pickled vegetable industry, being the only listed company in the sector [10] - The company has significantly invested in brand building, with its low-salt pickled vegetable brand recognition reaching 86.1% [11] - The company has enhanced its raw material control capabilities by constructing large-scale storage facilities, increasing its storage capacity from 270,000 tons to 677,000 tons [15] - The company has optimized its procurement structure, reducing its reliance on external semi-finished products from 60.2% in 2020 to 12.7% in 2023 [15] Strategic Adjustments - The company has launched a strategic product to regain the 2 yuan price segment, which now accounts for 25% of its pickled vegetable sales [17] - The company is expanding its product line, including radish, pickled vegetables, and pickled vegetable sauce, with plans to introduce new products in 2024 [20] - The company has made breakthroughs in the catering channel, with orders exceeding 100 million yuan in 2024 [24] - The company has optimized its organizational structure, making it more efficient and market-oriented [28] Financial Performance and Outlook - The company's gross margin has significantly improved in 2024 due to the use of low-cost raw materials, and this trend is expected to continue into the first half of 2025 [34] - The company's inventory levels have decreased, with current inventory at 6 weeks, down from 7 weeks in Q3 2024 [32] - The company's net profit margin and ROE are expected to steadily increase as advertising expenses stabilize and channel expenses focus on driving actual sales [34] - The company's cash flow is strong, with a cash flow ratio consistently above 100% in recent years, and the dividend payout ratio is expected to increase to over 80% in the future [40] Investment Perspective - The company is entering a new strategic phase with stable performance, improved internal management, and enhanced competitive advantages, leading to more stable and less cyclical earnings [2] - The company's valuation is at a historical low, with a 2024 dividend yield expected to be 2.5%, potentially rising above 3% as the dividend payout ratio increases [3] - The company's investment logic should shift from focusing on price increases to valuing its competitive advantages, channel control, and internal management efficiency [3]