博通（AVGO.O）：软硬双吃，AI算力时代的另类赢家

Core Viewpoints - Broadcom's growth strategy heavily relies on acquisitions, particularly in the semiconductor and software sectors, with a focus on integrating VMware and expanding its AI business [2][4] - The company's AI business, driven by partnerships with major tech firms like Google and Meta, is expected to grow significantly, contributing to a projected core operating profit of $33.6 billion in FY2025, a 38% YoY increase [2][10] - VMware's integration and the shift to a SaaS subscription model are key drivers for Broadcom's software revenue, with VMware expected to contribute $17 billion in FY2025, growing at 40% YoY [12][16] Business Segments Semiconductor Solutions - Broadcom's semiconductor business is divided into networking, storage connectivity, broadband, wireless communication, and industrial & other segments, with networking being the largest contributor [2][6] - The AI business, part of the networking segment, is a major growth driver, with revenues expected to reach $17 billion in FY2025, driven by custom ASIC chips for cloud service providers [6][10] - Non-AI networking revenues are expected to remain flat, but overall networking revenue is projected to grow to over $20 billion in FY2025, a 30% YoY increase [10][11] Software Solutions - Broadcom's software business is primarily built through acquisitions, including VMware, CA, Symantec, and Brocade, with VMware being the most significant recent addition [12][13] - VMware's revenue is expected to grow rapidly due to the shift from perpetual licenses to SaaS subscriptions, with FY2025 revenue projected at $17 billion, a 40% YoY increase [15][16] - The company's traditional software business (CA, Symantec, Brocade) is expected to remain stable, with slight growth in FY2025 [16] AI Business - Broadcom's AI business is centered around custom ASIC chips, which are used by major cloud providers like Google and Meta for AI workloads [6][7] - Google's TPU v6e, produced by Broadcom, offers 926 TFLOPS, comparable to NVIDIA's H100, but with a 2-year lag in performance [7][8] - Broadcom's AI revenue is closely tied to the capital expenditures of its major clients, with Google and Meta's spending driving a 40% YoY growth in AI revenue, expected to reach $17 billion in FY2025 [8][10] VMware Integration - VMware, acquired by Broadcom in 2023, is a leader in the virtualization software market, with a dominant position in both global and Chinese markets [13][14] - Broadcom has restructured VMware's business model, shifting from perpetual licenses to SaaS subscriptions, which is expected to significantly boost revenue [15][16] - VMware's revenue growth is expected to stabilize at around 10% YoY after the initial surge from the subscription model shift, contributing $17 billion in FY2025 [16] Financial Projections - Broadcom's core operating profit is expected to reach $33.6 billion in FY2025, a 38% YoY increase, driven by growth in both semiconductor and software businesses [2][16] - The company's semiconductor solutions revenue is projected to grow to $35 billion in FY2025, a 17% YoY increase, while software revenue is expected to reach $27 billion, a 25% YoY increase [16] - Broadcom's operating margin is expected to improve due to cost control measures and the higher-margin SaaS business, with core operating profit projected to grow to $40.1 billion in FY2026 [16][17] Valuation - Broadcom's valuation is influenced by its acquisition of VMware, which has led to significant amortization costs impacting short-term profitability [18] - The company's core operating profit, adjusted for acquisition-related costs, provides a clearer picture of its financial health, with a projected CAGR of 13.9% from FY2025 to FY2028 [17][18]