PotlatchDeltic Positioned To Have Earnings Bump When Lumber Prices Normalize

Core Thesis - PotlatchDeltic Corporation (PCH) is currently trading at a significant discount (73% of net asset value) due to recent commodity pricing weakness, but the outlook for lumber is improving, suggesting a potential doubling of EBITDA from 2024 levels [3][26]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply of lumber is declining as major producers like Canfor and Interfor are closing mills and reducing output due to low prices and rising tariffs, with North American lumber capacity expected to decrease by over 3 billion board feet in 2024 [5][6][7]. - Demand for lumber is anticipated to increase, driven by a potential uptick in housing activity, as indicated by improved homebuilder confidence and favorable survey results [12][13][14]. Financial Performance and Valuation - PCH's EBITDA is projected to be $223.5 million in 2024, despite current challenges, with the company maintaining a positive EBITDA due to its cost advantages from owning timberlands [8][26]. - The volatility in PCH's EBITDA is notable, with figures ranging from negative$9.5 million in 3Q24 to $652.8 million in 2021, reflecting the cyclical nature of the lumber market [22][23][24]. - PCH's trailing EV/EBITDA is 11.38X, indicating substantial undervaluation compared to the market, especially given the expected recovery in lumber prices [26][27]. Future Catalysts - The upcoming 4Q24 earnings report on January 27th is seen as a potential catalyst for PCH's stock recovery, as the company may report higher-than-expected EBITDA due to recent increases in lumber prices [28][29].