张瑜：坐在居民存款的“火山口”

Core Viewpoints - The "volcano" metaphor refers to the significant accumulation of excess household deposits in recent years, which could become a major macroeconomic force if household risk appetite recovers [2] - With rising household assets, economic analysis must consider both income flows and changes in asset stocks (real estate and deposits) [2] - China's households have accumulated 40-50 trillion yuan in excess deposits by September 2024, accounting for about 30% of total household deposits [2] - Excess deposits differ from excess savings, as deposits represent only the lowest-risk portion of household savings [2][6] Deposit Formation and Characteristics - Excess deposits have formed due to declining investment returns across real estate, stocks, and PPI over the past three years [3] - Households more reliant on property income have accumulated larger excess deposits [3][31] - The ratio of household deposits to GDP has surged from 79% (2010-2019 average) to 115% by September 2024 [5] - Unlike the US, China's excess deposits haven't translated into excess savings, as income growth has slowed [7][19] Economic Impact - High household deposits reduce credit expansion efficiency, with the ratio of new social financing to GDP rising from 3.2 (2010-2019) to 4.5 (2021-2023) [8] - Excluding household deposits, the ratio of non-deposit financing to GDP remains stable at around 2.3 [9] - Excessive deposits weaken the economic circulation between households and enterprises [10] - If 2025 household deposits decrease by 2 trillion yuan, GDP growth could increase by 0.5-0.6 percentage points [11] Future Implications - Excess deposits represent under-invested household assets that could flow into various markets if risk appetite recovers [11] - Historical patterns show deposit outflows into equity funds in 2021 and bond funds in 2023-2024 [12] - The ratio of household deposits to A-share market capitalization stands at 1.75x (October 2024), significantly above the historical peak level of 1.1x [12] Comparative Analysis - US households saw savings rise from 7.3% of income (2010-2019) to 9.2% (2020-2023), with non-deposit savings increasing significantly [18] - Chinese households maintained savings at around 37-38% of income, but deposit share rose from 15% to 20% [19] - US savings growth came from income increases, while China's deposit growth reflects asset scarcity [20][21]