【公募基金】科技和并购概念崛起，如何增配弹性基金？——基金配置策略报告（2024年12月期）

Equity Market Outlook - The stock market is expected to show a rotational upward trend as market sentiment recovers, driven by signals of "moderately loose monetary policy" and "stabilizing the stock and property markets" from the December 9 Politburo meeting [3] - Consumption and finance sectors, which are closely tied to the economic cycle, are expected to perform relatively better [3] - Core asset broad-based indices such as the CSI 300 and A500 are worth monitoring [3] - If policy implementation and economic recovery exceed expectations, the technology and growth sectors may benefit from interest rate cuts and economic recovery, particularly in industries related to new quality productivity [3] Bond Market Outlook - The bond market remains cautiously optimistic in the medium to long term, with limited risk of a bear market, as the central bank is expected to maintain reasonable liquidity in coordination with fiscal efforts [4][5] - Large-scale incremental policies targeting the economy are yet to be introduced, which could further stabilize the bond market [4][5] Equity Portfolio Allocation Strategy - A balanced approach between growth and value styles is expected in the short term, with a slight advantage for growth [5] - Key sectors to watch include: - Technology and growth sectors, particularly in robotics, self-reliance, and new quality productivity areas such as electronics, computers, and automation equipment [5] - Merger and acquisition concepts, especially in software, defense, media, and traditional industries with high local government ownership [5] - Sectors with stable or accelerating supply clearance and demand meeting expectations [5] Fixed Income Portfolio Allocation Strategy - Short-term pure bond funds: Short-term bond market risks are limited, with strong certainty at the short end, while medium-term bonds also offer value. Long-term bonds may experience wide fluctuations, so caution is advised [6] - Medium to long-term pure bond funds: Interest rates are expected to continue their long-term downward trend, but the recent rapid decline suggests a better entry point for long-duration bond funds. Credit bond funds may see reduced value as credit spreads return to yearly lows [6] - Fixed income+ funds: The bond side aims for stable returns, while the equity side varies in allocation but generally focuses on stable dividend styles or balanced industry allocations. Growth-oriented sectors like technology, healthcare, and cyclical consumption are considered for flexible allocations [6]