新兴市场｜美国大选后全球资金如何再配置？

Global Capital Flows Post-US Election - Significant capital inflows into the US stock market in November driven by the "Trump trade," while most emerging economies, Europe, and Japan experienced notable outflows [1][2] - A-share market saw a reversal from substantial net inflows in October to significant net outflows in November, influenced by domestic economic policy expectations [1][3] - Other emerging markets also faced pronounced foreign capital outflows in November, particularly in trade-dependent economies and those with previous sustained inflows [1][3] A-Share Market Dynamics - Overseas funds tracking China shifted from net inflows in October to net outflows in November, driven by the "Trump trade" and RMB depreciation [3] - Passive funds dominated the record-high net inflows in October, while both active and passive funds began net outflows in late October and early November, respectively [3] - RMB exchange rate stabilized recently, slowing the pace of foreign capital outflows, with expectations of a steady rise in December [3] Emerging Markets Overview - India experienced continuous foreign capital outflows from October to November, with Q2 GDP growth slowing to 5.4%, the lowest in nearly two years [4] - ASEAN markets (excluding Singapore) and East Asian markets (South Korea and Taiwan) faced significant foreign capital outflows, reflecting trade-related concerns [5] - Latin American markets saw inflows only in Argentina, potentially due to improved economic data, while other markets remained under pressure [6] Trump's Impact on Emerging Markets - Trump's return is expected to exert pressure on emerging markets through a strong dollar and global trade disruptions, with potential sustained effects [6] - Historical trends during Trump's first term showed similar pressures on emerging market growth, which had recently improved under Biden's "friend-shoring" policies [6]