Where Will Rivian Automotive Stock Be in 3 Years?

Core Viewpoint - Rivian Automotive, an electric vehicle manufacturer, has faced significant challenges since its IPO, including production shortfalls and supply chain issues, but it has plans for future growth and expansion despite current losses [1][2][3][5]. Production and Financial Performance - Rivian's production in 2022 fell short of its target, producing only 24,337 vehicles against a goal of 50,000, leading to a significant decline in investor confidence [3]. - In 2023, Rivian improved its production, manufacturing 57,232 vehicles and delivering 50,122, but it anticipates a decrease in production for 2024, expecting to produce between 47,000 and 49,000 vehicles [4][5]. - Analysts project a modest revenue growth of 5% for Rivian in 2024, a stark contrast to the 167% growth in 2023 and 2,915% in 2022 [5]. Future Growth Plans - Rivian plans to launch its R2 SUV in 2026 and R3 models in 2026 and 2027, alongside fulfilling Amazon's order for 100,000 electric delivery vans by 2030 [6]. - A new joint venture with Volkswagen aims to co-develop EV architecture, with Volkswagen investing up to $5 billion in Rivian and the joint venture over the next two years [7]. - Rivian intends to build a $5 billion plant in Georgia, which could triple its production capacity, with plans to start construction by mid-2026 and begin operations in 2027 [8][9]. Financial Outlook and Valuation - Analysts expect Rivian to remain unprofitable in the near term but anticipate a positive gross margin by Q4 2024 as production efficiencies improve [10]. - Revenue is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 21% from 2023 to 2026, with potential stock price increases if the company meets growth expectations [11]. - If Rivian achieves a 20% revenue growth in 2027 and trades at 5 times sales, its stock could rise nearly 260%, increasing its market cap to approximately $47.5 billion by 2027 [12]. Investment Consideration - Rivian is considered a speculative investment with a low valuation and a clear growth roadmap, supported by Amazon's continued stake in the company [13].