2025年大宗商品年度平衡表全推演，哪些品种会有供需大缺口？

Copper Market - Global refined copper production is expected to reach 2761.9 million tons in 2024, with a surplus of 46.9 million tons, and 2806.8 million tons in 2025, with a surplus of 19.3 million tons [1] - Copper concentrate production is projected to increase to 2354.1 million tons in 2025, with a growth rate of 3.5% [1] - The TC/RCs for copper concentrate processing in 2024 are set at $23.25 per ton and$2.325 per pound, with a significant decline expected in 2025, potentially leading to expanded losses for smelting companies [2] Aluminum Market - Global aluminum production is expected to reach 7457 million tons in 2025, with a slight surplus of 12 million tons [4] - Domestic aluminum consumption in China is projected to grow by 2% in 2025, while overseas consumption is expected to grow by 2.2%, both showing a slowdown compared to 2024 [5] - Aluminum oxide production is forecasted to reach 8850 million tons in 2025, with a surplus of 300 million tons, shifting from a tight balance to an oversupply [6] Zinc Market - Global zinc production is expected to reach 1418 million tons in 2025, with a surplus of 18 million tons, including a domestic surplus of 10 million tons in China and an overseas surplus of 8 million tons [8] - Overseas zinc mine production is projected to increase by nearly 400,000 tons in 2025, with domestic production increasing by around 100,000 tons [8] - The zinc market is expected to gradually shift to a surplus in 2025, with processing fees likely to improve, boosting smelter production enthusiasm [9] Lead Market - Global lead production is expected to reach 1313 million tons in 2025, with a surplus of 20 million tons [10] - Domestic lead production in China is projected to reach 365 million tons in 2025, with a slight shortage expected [11] - The global lead market is expected to maintain a surplus in 2025, with domestic supply and demand remaining tight [12] Nickel Market - Global refined nickel production is expected to reach 365 million tons in 2025, with a surplus of 14 million tons [13] - Domestic nickel production in China is projected to reach 105 million tons in 2025, with a surplus of 11.06 million tons [14] - The nickel market is expected to remain in surplus in 2025, with primary nickel supply and demand continuing to grow [14] Tin Market - Global tin production is expected to reach 37 million tons in 2025, with a slight deficit of 0.7 million tons [16] - Domestic tin production in China is projected to reach 14.3 million tons in 2025, with a slight surplus of 0.7 million tons [17] - The tin market is expected to face supply constraints in 2025, with potential disruptions in major producing regions such as Myanmar and Indonesia [18] Lithium Market - Global lithium production is expected to reach 136.1 million tons in 2025, with a surplus of 7.05 million tons [20] - Domestic lithium production in China is projected to reach 790,000 tons in 2025, with a surplus of 13,000 tons [21] - The lithium market is expected to remain in surplus in 2025, with supply growth driven by increased production from Australia and Africa [22] Steel Market - Global steel production is expected to reach 101,296 million tons in 2025, with a slight decline of 0.02% [25] - Domestic steel demand in China is projected to decline by 1.04% in 2025, while hot-rolled coil demand is expected to grow by 1.57% [25] - The steel market is expected to face oversupply in 2025, with production growth outpacing demand [26] Methanol Market - Global methanol production is expected to reach 852.69 million tons in 2025, with a slight deficit of 5.8 million tons [28] - Domestic methanol production in China is projected to reach 740.46 million tons in 2025, with a slight surplus [28] - The methanol market is expected to remain balanced in 2025, with supply and demand growing in tandem [28] Urea Market - Domestic urea production in China is expected to reach 6547 million tons in 2025, with a surplus of 10 million tons [30] - Urea demand is projected to grow by 7.31% in 2025, with agricultural demand expected to drive consumption [30] - The urea market is expected to remain oversupplied in 2025, with production growth outpacing demand [31] Paper Pulp Market - Global paper pulp production is expected to reach 5457 million tons in 2025, with a growth rate of 3% [32] - Domestic paper pulp production in China is projected to reach 1481 million tons in 2025, with a surplus of 30 million tons [34] - The paper pulp market is expected to remain balanced in 2025, with supply and demand growing in tandem [34] Natural Rubber Market - Global natural rubber production is expected to reach 159 million tons in 2025, with a slight surplus [38] - Domestic natural rubber production in China is projected to reach 129.74 million tons in 2025, with a slight surplus [38] - The natural rubber market is expected to face supply constraints in 2025, with potential disruptions in major producing regions [38] Synthetic Rubber Market - Global synthetic rubber production is expected to reach 155.7 million tons in 2025, with a slight surplus [40] - Domestic synthetic rubber production in China is projected to reach 152.03 million tons in 2025, with a slight surplus [40] - The synthetic rubber market is expected to remain balanced in 2025, with supply and demand growing in tandem [40]