中金 • 全球研究 | 国别研究系列之巴西篇：南美“金砖”新时代

Economic Overview - Brazil is the largest economy in Latin America with a GDP of $2.17 trillion in 2023, ranking 9th globally [1] - The economy is primarily driven by domestic consumption, which accounts for over 60% of GDP [12] - Brazil has a population of 215 million, making it the 7th most populous country globally [1] - The country is rich in natural resources, with significant reserves of iron, bauxite, nickel, and gold [5] Sector Analysis - Services dominate Brazil's economy, contributing 59% to GDP in 2023 [44] - Agriculture and mining are key export sectors, with Brazil being a global leader in soybean, coffee, and iron ore production [51] - Manufacturing accounts for only 13% of GDP, indicating a structural weakness in industrial development [44] - The country has significant potential in green energy, with 49% of its energy demand met by renewables in 2022 [96] Regional Development - Economic activity is concentrated in the Southeast and South regions, which account for 70% of national GDP [53] - São Paulo state alone contributes 30.2% to Brazil's GDP, making it the economic powerhouse [53] - The Northeast region has shown growth potential, particularly in industrial and service sectors [53] - Agricultural production is concentrated in the South and Midwest regions, which account for 54% of agricultural value added [57] Fiscal and Monetary Policy - Brazil faces significant fiscal challenges, with government debt reaching 90% of GDP in 2023 [80] - The central bank has maintained high interest rates to combat inflation, with the Selic rate at 10.5% in 2024 [71] - Tax reform implemented in 2023 aims to simplify the tax system and reduce consumption taxes [102] - Inflation remains a concern, with CPI reaching 4.5% in 2024, at the upper limit of the target range [72] Trade and Investment - China has been Brazil's largest trading partner for 15 consecutive years, accounting for a significant portion of exports [104] - Brazil's export structure remains concentrated in primary products, with iron ore, soybeans, and crude oil being the top exports [51] - Foreign direct investment has been volatile, with significant fluctuations in recent years [40] - The country has potential to attract more investment in infrastructure, manufacturing, and green energy sectors [3] Labor Market and Productivity - Unemployment reached a decade-low of 6.4% in 2024, reflecting a strong labor market recovery [69] - Labor productivity growth has been stagnant, averaging -0.34% over the past decade [21] - The country faces challenges in capital accumulation, with investment accounting for only 16% of GDP in 2023 [20] - Brazil's labor force growth rate of 0.6% (2019-2023) lags behind other emerging markets like India and Indonesia [19] Digital Economy - Brazil has a large and growing digital market, with 82% internet penetration and 177 million users [94] - E-commerce has grown rapidly, with a 17% CAGR from 2020-2023 and projected market size of$ 78 billion by 2027 [94] - Digital banking has seen significant growth, with Nubank becoming Latin America's largest bank by market capitalization [95] - The country's fintech sector has potential for further expansion, with projected 5% annual growth in financial services [94] Green Energy Potential - Brazil is a global leader in renewable energy, with 88% of electricity generation coming from renewable sources [96] - Hydropower dominates the energy mix, accounting for 63% of renewable generation [96] - The country has significant potential in solar and wind energy, with solar capacity reaching 37.4 GW in 2023 [97] - Bioenergy is another key sector, with Brazil being the world's second-largest producer of bioethanol [96]