张明：努力实现名义GDP增速在2025年企稳反弹｜宏观经济

Economic Growth Outlook - China's GDP growth rates for the first three quarters of 2024 were 5.3%, 4.7%, and 4.6%, with a cumulative growth of 4.8%. The expectation for the full year 2024 is around 5.0% [2] - The contribution of consumption to GDP growth has significantly declined, which is a major reason for the low economic growth. The GDP deflator index has shown negative growth for six consecutive quarters [2] - The upcoming Central Economic Work Conference is expected to set the economic growth target for 2025 at around 5.0%, which aligns with the goal of doubling per capita GDP by 2035 [3] Monetary and Fiscal Policy Recommendations - The recommended macroeconomic policy for 2025 includes an active fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy, with a CPI target of 2%. If CPI growth does not reach this target, monetary easing will continue [4] - It is anticipated that there will be two reserve requirement ratio cuts and reductions in the LPR rates, along with a potential decrease in mortgage rates [4] - The fiscal deficit is expected to rise to 4.0%-4.5% of GDP, with additional special bonds issued for infrastructure and social welfare projects, leading to a significant increase in fiscal spending [4] Economic Projections for 2025 - If the proposed monetary and fiscal policies are implemented, GDP growth in 2025 could range from 4.7% to 5.0%, with a nominal GDP growth expected to rise by 1 percentage point compared to 2024 [5] - Consumer spending and fixed asset investment growth are projected to rebound to around 5.0%, while export growth may decline significantly in the latter half of 2025 [5] Financial Risk Management - The Central Economic Work Conference will also address systemic financial risk management, particularly concerning local government debt. A proposed "6-4-2 debt resolution plan" aims to alleviate repayment pressures on local governments [6] - The real estate market is showing signs of stabilization, but further measures are needed to address ongoing issues, such as declining prices in core areas of major cities and liquidity crises among leading private developers [7] Market Outlook - In the stock market, increased participation from long-term investors is expected, with the Shanghai Composite Index projected to fluctuate between 3200 and 4000 points [7] - The bond market is anticipated to see 10-year government bond yields fluctuate around 1.8%-2.0%, influenced by economic conditions and stock market performance [8]