经济工作会议：六大关键信号（民生宏观陶川团队）

Economic Policy and Fiscal Measures - The central economic work conference highlighted a shift in economic priorities, placing equal emphasis on price stability, international balance of payments, and income growth alongside traditional goals like stable growth and employment [3] - The government is set to increase the fiscal deficit rate, a rare move historically, signaling a more proactive fiscal stance to stabilize the economy [4][5] - The fiscal policy is expected to become "more active," with plans to raise the deficit rate, increase the issuance of ultra-long-term special treasury bonds, and optimize fiscal expenditure structures [5] - The government bond scale is projected to rise from nearly 12 trillion yuan to 15 trillion yuan by 2025, driven by increased fiscal spending on民生 and other demand-boosting areas [6][7] Consumer and Domestic Demand Stimulus - Boosting domestic demand, particularly consumer spending, has been elevated to a top priority, indicating a potential shift from an investment-driven to a consumption-driven economic model [8] - Key areas for consumer stimulus include expanding the "two new" policies (new infrastructure and new urbanization) and improving民生保障 through measures like increasing pensions and reducing burdens on low-income groups [8] - The government plans to allocate 1500 billion yuan to expand consumer stimulus programs, potentially driving 4000 billion yuan in sales, equivalent to 0.9% of the 2023 total retail sales [11] Monetary Policy and Financial Stability - Monetary policy will focus on maintaining liquidity and coordinating with fiscal policy, with potential increases in the tolerance for exchange rate fluctuations to allow for more domestic easing [12][13] - The central bank may adopt a more accommodative stance, including larger cuts in reserve requirements and interest rates, alongside measures to stabilize financial markets [12] - Exchange rate flexibility is expected to increase, with the possibility of the yuan breaking through 7.3 against the dollar, providing more room for monetary easing [13][15] Real Estate and Financial Market Stability - Stabilizing the real estate market, particularly in core cities, is crucial for restoring consumer confidence and supporting domestic demand [16] - Policies may include further relaxation of mortgage rates and increased central fiscal support for保障房 projects, though challenges remain in terms of rental yields and project profitability [16] Supply-Side Reforms and Structural Adjustments - The government aims to address "internal competition" and overcapacity through structural optimization, focusing on stabilizing employment while improving efficiency [16] - Measures may include深化零基预算改革, reducing export tax rebates, and extending holidays without调休, aligning with broader supply-side reform goals [16] Key Economic Tasks for 2024 - The central economic work conference outlined nine key tasks for 2024, including boosting consumption, advancing technological innovation, and deepening reforms in key sectors [19] - Specific measures include implementing消费专项行动, increasing pensions, and expanding the "two new" policies, alongside efforts to stabilize the real estate market and promote green development [19][22]