ETF配置策略｜如何根据市场风格轮动进行ETF配置？

Market Style and ETF Strategy - The market style dominance is expected to shift from individual investors to institutional investors by 2025, with ETFs becoming a key allocation tool [1][2] - ETF portfolio construction should focus on timing style rotations, with different ETFs representing different types of beta based on index composition [2] - Historical macro changes and dominant industries/styles can be categorized into four economic environments: white horse blue-chip, white horse growth, low valuation, and small-cap growth [2] Four Market Styles and Corresponding ETF Strategies - White Horse Blue-Chip Style: Dominates when new industry trends emerge, credit cycles and macro prosperity rise, and there is a clear industry driver creating mass employment (e.g., 2017-2019 with mobile internet driving digital economy growth) [3] - ETF allocation: Focus on large-cap blue-chip style broad-based indices [3] - White Horse Growth Style: Dominates during the early stage of old-to-new economic drivers transition, with policy tightening and slowing growth (e.g., 2020-2021 with EV, new energy, and electronics industries accelerating in China) [4] - ETF allocation: Choose mid-to-large-cap broad-based indices or growth-factor-weighted indices like ChiNext Momentum Growth [5] - Industry focus: Pharmaceuticals, electronics, and new energy align with this style [5] - Low Valuation Style: Dominates during the mid-stage of old-to-new economic drivers transition, with economic growth pressure increasing and income growth momentum weakening (e.g., past two years with mobile internet traffic peaking) [5] - ETF allocation: Opt for low-volatility dividend or value-factor-weighted indices [5] - Industry focus: Finance, real estate, power, and coal fit this style [5] - Overseas broad-based indices may be more suitable than A-share broad-based indices due to reduced risk appetite for A-shares [5] - Small-Cap Growth Style: Dominates during the late stage of old-to-new economic drivers transition, with policy innovation finding new economic support tools and emerging industries forming (e.g., post-September 2024 with policy shifts and generative AI driving new growth) [6] - ETF allocation: Select small-to-mid-cap broad-based indices or growth-factor-weighted Smart Beta indices [6] - Industry focus: Computers, media, and semiconductors align with this style [6] Short-Term and Long-Term Outlook - Short-term: Central Politburo and Central Economic Work Conferences may confirm a policy inflection point, boosting institutional investor risk appetite and potentially favoring white horse styles for a period [1][7] - Long-term: A-share market is expected to experience an annual-level upward trend in 2025, driven by stable core city housing prices and rising social financing growth [7] - ETF allocation: White horse styles may see a rebound due to policy confidence, but sustained dominance is uncertain and requires further observation of price signals and policy implementation [7] - Focus areas for growth and domestic consumption: Autonomous driving, AI wearables, internet, and new retail [7] - Transitional allocation: Low-valuation, pro-cyclical sectors like aluminum, copper, state-owned banks, and real estate developers [7]