EVgo (US:EVGO) Benzingaยท2024-12-13 13:27Core Insights - EVgo Inc has secured a $1.25 billion Department of Energy loan guarantee, enabling the deployment of over 7,500 fast-charging stalls in five years and avoiding equity dilution, marking a significant growth milestone for the company [1][2] Financial Outlook - The DOE loan is expected to enhance EVgo's financial outlook, with revised guidance projecting up to $1.1 billion in revenue and EBITDA as high as $425 million, alongside a network utilization increase to 26% [3] - The guidance does not account for potential stall capex reductions of up to 30% by 2026, which could allow for an additional 1,600 stalls under the same loan [3] Competitive Advantage - EVgo's owner-operator model is seen as a key advantage, providing operating leverage and enabling the company to capture market share in the public fast-charging market, unlike competitors who are delaying profitability [4] Market Sentiment - The execution of operational milestones and a faster pace of stall deployment are anticipated to trigger positive market reactions, with short covering potentially amplifying stock performance as EVgo overcomes sector challenges [5] Growth Potential - The revised build schedule and improving unit economics could lead to a 10-20% upside in EBITDA estimates for the 2026-2028 period, with the DOE loan accelerating growth and profitability timelines [6]