研客专栏 | 各外资行对2025的展望汇总

Macroeconomic Forecasts for China in 2025 - Major foreign investment banks are generally pessimistic about China's macroeconomic outlook for 2025, with GDP growth forecasts significantly lower than domestic institutions' predictions [1] - Foreign institutions generally expect China's real GDP growth to slow to around 4% in 2025, with the most pessimistic scenarios projecting as low as 3.5%-3.6% [17] Goldman Sachs' Projections - Forecasts China's real GDP growth to slow from 4.9% in 2024 to 4.5% in 2025 [3] - Expects China to cut interest rates by 40 basis points and significantly increase the broad fiscal deficit ratio by 1.8 percentage points in 2025 [3] - Predicts a 20% weighted average increase in US tariffs on Chinese goods, which could drag down China's GDP growth by 0.7 percentage points annually [3] - Anticipates the RMB to depreciate to 7.5 against the USD [3] Morgan Stanley's Analysis - Projects China's GDP growth to slow to around 4% in 2025/2026, with nominal GDP growth further decelerating to 3% [5] - Expects the US to increase effective tariff rates on Chinese goods by 15 percentage points in 2025 and another 10 percentage points in 2026 [5] - Predicts a second round of moderate, industry-focused stimulus in 2025, expanding the fiscal deficit by 1.4 percentage points and issuing 2 trillion yuan in long-term special government bonds [5] - Downgrades China's stock market rating from equal weight to underweight and lowers target prices for the Hang Seng Index, MSCI China Index, and CSI 300 Index [5] UBS's Outlook - Revises down China's 2025 real GDP growth forecast from 4.5% to around 4%, with 2026 growth projected at 3% [7] - Identifies three major challenges for China's economy in 2025: real estate market adjustment, domestic demand adjustment, and trade war impacts [7] - Predicts the RMB to weaken against the USD, with the onshore RMB/USD exchange rate reaching 7.3 by end-2024 and 7.6 by end-2025 [7] Nomura's Perspective - Forecasts China's 2025 GDP growth at around 4%, citing challenges such as consumer recovery, real estate market uncertainty, and global economic conditions [9] - Predicts China's export growth to slow to -0.3% year-on-year in 2025 due to global economic uncertainty [9] - Believes it is too early to call a bottom in the real estate market, despite some pent-up demand release from major easing measures [9] Wells Fargo's Projections - Expects global GDP growth of 2.5% in 2025, with developed economies growing at 1.7% and emerging economies at 3.0% [11] - Predicts China's economic growth to slow to 4% in 2025, despite countermeasures [11] - Anticipates USD strength in 2025 due to Fed policy, China's economic uncertainty, and US economic policy changes, with the USD index potentially reaching levels not seen since 2002 [11] - Forecasts RMB depreciation to 7.75 against the USD by Q1 2026 [11] Bank of America's Scenarios - Base case: Projects China's real GDP growth to slow from 4.8% in 2024 to 4.5% in 2025, with potential US tariff increases from 20% to 40% [13] - Pessimistic scenario: If the US imposes 60% tariffs on all Chinese goods in Q1 2025, China's GDP growth could drop to 4.1% in Q1 and below 4% for the full year [13] - Expects fiscal deficit expansion to 3.5% of GDP, issuance of over 1.5 trillion yuan in special government bonds, and further monetary easing (30 basis point rate cut) [13] - Predicts real estate market stabilization by 2026, supported by increased financing channels and lower mortgage rates [13] World Bank's Assessment - Projects China's economic growth to slow further to 4.3% in 2025, citing weak real estate market, low consumer and investor confidence, and structural challenges [15] - Expects investment growth to be constrained by rising debt and demographic changes, while domestic consumption remains subdued [15] - Identifies external demand weakness and global trade policy uncertainty as key pressures on China's exports [15] Market Reactions and Policy Expectations - Foreign investors have been net sellers in Chinese markets since October, with the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect ratio approaching historic lows [17] - The Hang Seng Index has returned to levels seen at the start of the 924 rally [17] - Focus remains on potential US tariff increases (30%-40%) and China's economic stimulus policies [18] - The December 9 Politburo meeting signaled a shift towards more aggressive fiscal and monetary stimulus, similar to the 2009 approach, to counter economic pressures [18]