国泰君安:关注养殖产业链、种植产业链、宠物领域的投资机会
Zheng Quan Shi Bao Wang·2024-12-17 00:22

Livestock Industry Chain - The pig price is supported, with profit differentiation expected. The pig output is anticipated to slowly recover by 2025, while the weight decreases, supporting the price center for pigs in 2025. Low-cost companies are expected to see a faster decline in costs, maintaining high profits in breeding [1] - The upstream poultry sector shows positive trends. The proportion of overseas breeds for white feather broilers is decreasing, and there are uncertainties in breeding. The expected prices for upstream chick seedlings are optimistic. The stock of parent breeding chickens for yellow feather broilers is at a low level, which is currently affecting the commodity chick seedlings [2] - The feed and veterinary medicine sectors are expected to see an improvement in post-cycle prosperity [3][4] - The concentration of feed enterprises is increasing, while veterinary medicine companies are enhancing competitiveness through major products [5] Planting Industry Chain - Demand is the key driver for agricultural product prices. Domestic demand for corn, wheat, and sugar is expected to strengthen in 2025, following a weaker 2024 [6][7] - The feed and industrial demand is expected to drive up corn prices [8] - The seed industry is experiencing a revival and improved prosperity. The need for food self-sufficiency is increasing, making the revitalization of the seed industry necessary. The approval thresholds for seeds are rising, leading to a decrease in seed production area and a contraction in supply, which may drive up grain prices [9][10][11] - The application of genetically modified organisms is expected to further improve the seed industry landscape, highlighting the advantages of leading companies [12] Pet Industry - The pet economy is rapidly growing, driven by emotional consumption, particularly among young people. The pet economy is expected to continue its fast development [13][14] - Domestic brands are rising strongly to meet the needs of pet owners, aiming to catch up with foreign brands. There is a focus on product innovation related to pet health driven by research and development [14]