What's Behind SiriusXM's 50% Stock Slide This Year?

Company Performance - Sirius XM Holdings stock (NASDAQ: SIRI) is down 53% year-to-date, significantly underperforming the S&P 500, which grew 28% [1] - The company has experienced three consecutive years of poor stock performance, with returns of 0% in 2021, -8% in 2022, and -6% in 2023 [3] - Revenue growth fell 4% year-over-year in Q3 2024 to $2.17 billion, missing analyst estimates of $2.19 billion [4] - Net income for Q3 2024 was -$2.5 billion, resulting in diluted earnings per share of -$8.74, down from $234 million in the same quarter of 2023 [4] Financial Metrics - The company reaffirmed its fiscal year 2024 revenue guidance of $8.675 billion but revised its 2025 revenue projection downward to $8.5 billion [1] - Adjusted EBITDA for Q3 2024 decreased 7% year-over-year to $693 million, driven by softer subscriber revenue [4] - For full-year 2024, the company expects adjusted EBITDA of approximately $2.7 billion and free cash flow of $1 billion [6] - Revenue per share is forecasted at $25.62 for 2024, with a revised valuation of around $27 per share based on a 1.1x P/S multiple [5] Subscriber and Revenue Trends - Total subscribers declined 2% year-over-year in Q3 2024, totaling 33.2 million, including paid promotional subscribers [2] - Subscriber revenue dropped 5% to $1.65 billion, while advertising revenue declined 2% to $450 million in Q3 2024 [4] - The self-pay monthly churn rate remained stable at 1.6% for the quarter, indicating consistent retention of existing subscribers [2] Industry and Competitive Challenges - The company faces challenges from a sluggish recovery in the automotive industry and adverse advertising trends [2] - Pandora, a subsidiary, continues to struggle with stabilizing monthly active users and listening hours [2] - Sirius XM Holdings completed its merger with Liberty Sirius XM Group in September 2024 and conducted a 1-for-10 reverse stock split [6] Peer Comparison - Apple, a peer, has seen its stock rise 29% year-to-date, significantly outperforming Sirius XM [1] - The Trefis High Quality Portfolio, consisting of 30 stocks, has outperformed the S&P 500 each year over the same period, providing better returns with less risk [4]