野村首席观点 | 野村日本首席经济学家森田京平：预计2025年日本央行利率将达1%，日本经济将持续复苏

Macroeconomic Outlook for Japan - Japan is gradually forming a virtuous cycle between wages and prices, supported by higher inflation expectations, leading to sustained increases in both wages and prices [1] - Four channels facilitate this cycle: wage increases translating to sales prices, wage growth supporting consumer spending, higher labor income share, and real wage growth (wages rising faster than prices) [1] - By 2025, channels related to consumer spending and real wage growth are expected to become more prominent [1] Economic Recovery and Growth Drivers - Japan's economy is recovering faster than its potential growth rate, driven by several positive developments [2] - Key factors include rising domestic prices, proactive wage increases by companies, initiation of interest rate hikes, enhanced labor mobility, increased software investment, improved corporate governance, and diversified household financial assets through the new NISA [2] - Corporate governance improvements are partly due to Tokyo Stock Exchange's 2023 requirements for companies with price-to-book ratios below 1 to focus more on capital costs and stock prices [2] Risks and Challenges - Japan faces risks such as domestic political instability, potential global trade disruptions from a Trump US election win, and escalating geopolitical tensions [2] - These factors could lead to global supply chain fragmentation, reduced trade, and slower global economic growth [2] Monetary Policy and Economic Stimulus - The Bank of Japan is expected to normalize its accommodative monetary policy, raising the policy rate from 0.25% to 1.00% by 2025 [2] - A 39 trillion yen economic stimulus package was approved in November to address inflation and promote growth, with minimal impact on government debt due to increased tax revenues [3] - This stimulus is projected to support Japan's GDP growth by 0.7%—0.8% in 2025 [3]