Core Viewpoint - The consumer electronics industry is expected to grow driven by the multi-terminal deployment of edge AI, moderate growth in the smartphone market, and gradual upgrades in certain segments, with a focus on new replacement cycles for AI smartphones and AI PCs, innovations in AI wearable devices, and the optical industry restarting upgrades and configurations [1]. Group 1: Smartphone and Optical Market - The global smartphone market is projected to see a steady total volume, with a focus on the optical industry's restart and upgrades. Counterpoint forecasts a 3% year-on-year increase in global smartphone shipments in 2025, reaching 1.27 billion units [2][11]. - The optical industry is expected to experience a recovery in demand and upgrades, with significant trends including the acceleration of glass-plastic hybrid applications, increased penetration of periscope lenses, and enhanced module value due to larger sensor sizes [2][11]. Group 2: Edge AI Applications - The deployment of edge AI across multiple terminals is anticipated, with a focus on new replacement cycles for AI smartphones, AI PCs, and AI wearables. Counterpoint estimates that the global penetration rate of AI smartphones will reach 11% in 2024 and 43% by 2027 [3][26]. - AI PCs are expected to see a penetration rate of 37% by 2025, driven by the release of new products and advancements in AI capabilities [3][62]. Group 3: AI Agents and Content Distribution - AI Agents are expected to change content distribution channels, with the potential for hardware traffic entry points to develop significantly. The integration of large models into mobile operating systems may lead to new user interfaces that enhance interaction and content delivery [4][41]. Group 4: Automotive and Optical Components - The automotive sector is projected to see significant growth in L2+ autonomous driving features, which will drive an increase in the use of optical components in vehicles. The global market for automotive cameras is expected to reach 8.4 billion by 2029 [51][52]. - The penetration rate of L2+ autonomous driving systems in China is rapidly increasing, with expectations for further growth in sensor usage to enhance environmental perception [55][56]. Group 5: Market Performance and Valuation - The consumer electronics sector is experiencing a phase of valuation recovery, with the average P/E ratio for the electronics sector rising to 62 times as of November 29, 2024, driven by the recovery in the smartphone market and the edge AI theme [5][7]. - The smartphone supply chain companies in A/H shares have an average P/E ratio of 29.2 times, indicating a significant valuation increase since June 2024, primarily due to innovations in AI smartphones [5][9].
中金2025年展望 | 消费电子：端侧AI新元年
中金点睛·2024-12-16 23:46