研客专栏 | “适度宽松”的货币政策对A股的影响

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the shift in China's monetary policy to "moderately loose" and its implications for the A-share market, emphasizing the distinction between capital market liquidity and real economy liquidity, and the potential impact of fiscal policy on economic recovery and market performance [2][3][4]. Monetary Policy Statement - On December 9, 2024, the Central Political Bureau meeting indicated a shift from "prudent monetary policy" to "moderately loose monetary policy," which has garnered market attention [3]. - The Central Economic Work Conference held on December 11-12 emphasized a more proactive fiscal policy alongside moderately loose monetary policy, suggesting a combination of fiscal and monetary measures [3]. Relationship Between "Moderately Loose" Monetary Policy and Liquidity - Capital market liquidity does not equate to real economy liquidity; the former directly influences stock valuations, while the latter affects nominal profitability over a longer transmission period [4]. - Since September 2024, the capital market's liquidity has been primarily driven by overseas and domestic trading funds, with institutions actively utilizing this liquidity to build positions in A500 ETF [2][4]. Impact of Capital Market Liquidity on A-share Market - The article highlights two significant liquidity impacts on the A-share market in 2024: one in January and another in September [16]. - In January 2024, small-cap stocks faced liquidity challenges, leading to significant index corrections, but foreign capital began to bottom-fish, alleviating liquidity issues [18]. - In September 2024, A-shares surged over 25% due to a combination of external factors, including the U.S. Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and domestic policy measures aimed at stabilizing the housing market [24][25]. Current Economic Fundamentals - The primary factor affecting the long-term trajectory of the A-share market is the deleveraging process across various sectors, with a focus on whether nominal economic growth can exceed nominal interest rates [56]. - The article suggests that a more proactive fiscal policy aimed at boosting consumption and investment efficiency is essential for expanding domestic demand [2][56]. Future Outlook - The article posits that the effectiveness of monetary policy will depend on its interaction with fiscal measures, particularly in enhancing liquidity and stabilizing market expectations [54]. - The potential for a rebound in inflation expectations is linked to improvements in residents' income levels, which could positively influence the real estate market and the overall economy [61][63].