【申万宏源2025年A股投资策略】牛市“起手式”的两波行情

Market Dynamics and Trends - Trading activity in the A-share market has surged to levels seen during bull markets, with increased participation from retail investors and trading funds [2][3] - The average holding period for stocks has decreased significantly, indicating heightened trading intensity and potential for increased market volatility [3] - The market is currently in a low-cost-benefit zone, suggesting that short-term gains may be limited [2] Conditions for a Bull Market - Three common conditions for a bull market are identified: sustained inflow of incremental funds, cyclical/structural improvement in fundamentals, and long-term optimistic expectations for large-scale market movements [4] - The potential for a bull market is more likely to emerge from strategic breakthroughs in major power competition rather than domestic fiscal stimulus or tariff policies [4][5] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Midstream manufacturing is entering a historically significant period of supply pressure easing, with supply growth expected to decline through 2026 and potentially reach historical lows by 2027 [5][6] - Upstream cyclical industries are also expected to see a supply pressure easing cycle starting in the second half of 2025, potentially lasting until 2027 [6] - The decline in supply growth rates will reduce the demand growth required for companies to improve turnover and profitability [6] Export-Driven Growth - Exports have become the most important core driver for A-share cyclical industries, with sectors like oil and petrochemicals, non-ferrous metals, and basic chemicals heavily reliant on export demand [7][8] - Domestic fiscal and monetary policy coordination in 2025 is expected to be a necessary move, but the effectiveness of policy execution remains to be confirmed [7][8] Profitability and Earnings Forecast - The upward inflection point for A-share profitability may be delayed until 2026 due to the impact of Trump's tariffs, with a baseline scenario predicting a 6.5% year-on-year increase in net profit for the full year 2025 [9][10] - Under different scenarios, including the absence of tariffs or varying degrees of policy countermeasures, the profitability of A-share companies could see significant variations [10] Market Outlook and Investment Opportunities - The current market phase is considered the "opening move" of a potential bull market, with the first wave of the market expected to end by late 2024 and the second wave potentially starting in the second half of 2025 [11] - Active management is expected to rebound, with opportunities in sectors like new energy, pharmaceuticals, and electronics, which have seen supply pressures ease over the past three years [11][12] - M&A and share buybacks are highlighted as key investment opportunities, with policy support for M&A activities and a shift towards buybacks as a preferred method of capital management [13][14]