构建以消费驱动为核心的经济增长新模式

Economic Growth Model Shift - The core view of the article is that China should transition from an investment-driven growth model to a consumption-driven one to ensure sustainable economic growth [1] - The article suggests that China should provide sufficient development space for small and medium-sized enterprises, increase household income levels, reduce income inequality, and enhance effective demand to shift from supply creating demand to demand driving supply [1] New Development Pattern - In 2020, the Central Politburo Standing Committee proposed a new development pattern of "dual circulation," which emphasizes both domestic and international economic cycles [2] - The new development pattern positions consumption as a strategic focus, aiming to shift economic growth from investment-driven to consumption-driven [2] Historical Context of Economic Growth - Since 1978, China's economic growth has been driven by supply creating demand, leveraging low labor costs to become a global manufacturing hub [6] - Investment has been a key driver of economic growth, with foreign direct investment and domestic investment playing significant roles [6] Conditions and Challenges of the Growth Model - The supply-driven growth model requires two main conditions: sufficient labor supply and a dual economic system, and either supply shortage or demand surplus [8] - Post-2008 financial crisis, China faced challenges such as peaking labor supply, overcapacity, and insufficient effective demand, weakening the conditions for the supply-driven growth model [8] Labor Supply and Overcapacity - China's labor force peaked at 780 million in 2015 and has since declined, signaling the end of the demographic dividend [8] - Overcapacity became a significant issue post-2012, exacerbated by the US-China trade war and external environmental deterioration [9] Effective Demand Issues - Post-COVID-19, China experienced insufficient effective demand, with no significant rebound in consumption [10] - The decline in labor income as a percentage of GDP and widening income inequality are key factors contributing to insufficient effective demand [10] Policy Responses - The Chinese government has emphasized expanding effective demand and promoting consumption, particularly focusing on increasing income for low- and middle-income groups [2] - Supply-side structural reforms have been implemented since 2015 to address overcapacity in key industries [9]