Match Group Analyst Flags Tinder Woes, Industry Challenges For Stock Downgrade

Company Overview - Match Group (MTCH) is the leading online dating platform with an estimated ~50% share of global dating users across its portfolio of brands, including Tinder and Hinge, with Tinder being the largest and most profitable dating app globally [1] Analyst Downgrade - JPMorgan analyst Cory Carpenter downgraded Match Group from Overweight to Neutral and lowered the price target from $40 to $33, reflecting expectations for muted growth in the online dating industry in 2025 [1][2] Growth Expectations - Carpenter anticipates limited visibility regarding the timing and magnitude of the Tinder turnaround, with expectations that Tinder payers will stabilize as focus shifts from price optimizations to product and marketing [2][3] - The turnaround for Tinder has proven more challenging than expected, with significant work needed to return Tinder to sustainable growth [3] Revenue Projections - Tinder's revenue and user metrics are expected to decline before any improvement, with a return to growth not forecasted until 2027 [4] - Carpenter reduced his direct revenue estimate for Tinder by 10% for 2026, projecting a revenue decline of 6% in 2025, flat in 2026, and a 2% increase in 2027 [4] Valuation Metrics - The price target of $33 is based on nine times Carpenter's 2025E AOI of $1.3 billion, which is a discount compared to Grindr Inc (18 times) but a premium to Bumble Inc (6 times) [5] Current Stock Performance - As of the publication date, Match Group stock is trading at $31.76, reflecting a 0.57% increase [6]