CCL Stock Before Q4 Earnings: Should You Buy Now or Wait for Results?

Core Viewpoint - Carnival Corporation & plc is expected to report strong fiscal fourth-quarter results driven by robust demand, strategic cost management, and growth initiatives, with earnings per share estimated at 8 cents compared to a loss of 7 cents in the prior year [1][6][19] Financial Performance - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fiscal fourth-quarter revenues is $5.94 billion, indicating a 10% growth from the previous year [1] - Carnival's earnings have consistently outperformed estimates, with an average surprise of 318.1% over the last four quarters [2] - The company anticipates fiscal fourth-quarter net yields to rise by 5% on a constant-currency basis compared to 2023 levels [8] Revenue Breakdown - Estimated passenger ticket revenues for the fiscal third quarter are projected to increase by 9.3% year over year to $3.8 billion, while onboard and other revenues are expected to rise by 5.3% to $1.9 billion [7] Cost Management - Cruise costs, excluding fuel, are expected to increase by 8% due to higher dry dock activity and advertising expenditures [9] - Despite cost pressures, Carnival aims to generate approximately $1.14 billion in Adjusted EBITDA for the fiscal fourth quarter, reflecting a balance between growth and financial discipline [8][19] Stock Performance - Carnival's stock has increased by 54.1% over the past six months, outperforming the industry average growth of 18.7% [10] - The company is trading at a forward 12-month price-to-earnings ratio of 14.32, below the industry average of 20.59, indicating a relatively attractive valuation [14] Strategic Initiatives - Carnival has raised its full-year yield guidance for the third time in 2024, with 99% of ticket revenue already booked, indicating strong demand trends [15] - The company is investing in next-generation ships and modernizing its fleet, with a disciplined order book that includes only three ship deliveries planned through 2028 [16][17] Long-term Outlook - Carnival's focus on high-margin yield growth, free cash flow generation, and aggressive debt reduction of $7.3 billion since 2023 positions it well for long-term success [18] - The company is expected to create significant shareholder value while maintaining its leadership in the global cruise industry [18][20]