中金2025年展望 | 电力设备：全球电力大周期开启，电网投资步伐加快

Global Power Grid Investment Trends - The global power grid investment cycle is entering a new phase, driven by re-electrification and the development of new power systems, with the sector's prosperity expected to last until 2030 [1] - Global grid investment is accelerating, with 2023 investment reaching $3227 billion, a 6% YoY increase, and expected to grow to $3691 billion in 2024, a 13% YoY increase [39] - The CAGR of global grid investment from 2024-2026 is projected to be 5.3%, with long-term growth potential under economic transition scenarios [39] Domestic Power Grid Investment - China's grid investment is shifting from being driven solely by electricity consumption to being jointly driven by both generation and consumption sides, with significant investment opportunities in UHV and distribution networks [2] - From 2024-2026, China's grid investment CAGR is expected to be around 10%, with UHV investment projected to reach 112 billion yuan in 2025, a 34% YoY increase [2] - Distribution network investment is expected to accelerate to 5-10% in 2025, driven by equipment upgrades and smart grid transformation [2] UHV Development - UHV projects are a clear investment focus, with 3-5 DC lines expected to be approved annually from 2023-2027 to support large-scale renewable energy base transmission [10] - In 2025, four DC and four AC UHV projects are expected to be approved, with investment reaching 112 billion yuan, a 34% YoY increase [11] - UHV projects are entering a peak period of performance confirmation and approval, with significant growth potential [20] Overseas Grid Investment - Overseas grid investment is driven by energy transition, grid upgrades, and electricity demand growth, with U.S. and European markets showing strong potential [3] - The U.S. grid investment is expected to grow at a CAGR of 5-10% from 2023-2026, driven by inter-state transmission and grid equipment upgrades [44] - Europe's grid investment CAGR is projected at 8.9% from 2023-2026, with a focus on renewable energy integration and cross-border interconnections [46] Power Equipment Supply and Demand - Overseas power equipment supply is tight, with delivery times for large transformers extending to 140 weeks, and high-end equipment delivery times reaching over 260 weeks [50] - Foreign manufacturers' new orders rebounded in 3Q24, with BB ratios exceeding 1, indicating strong downstream demand [54] - Chinese power equipment exports are growing steadily, with a CAGR of 8.8% from 2018-2023, reaching $15.82 billion in 2023 [58] Investment Strategy - Domestic demand remains strong, with UHV and distribution network investments expected to accelerate, and grid digitalization maintaining steady growth [64] - Overseas demand is sustainable, with Chinese power equipment companies well-positioned for long-term growth in global markets [67] - Key investment areas include UHV equipment, smart meters, and distribution equipment, with a focus on structural changes in the market [68][69]